WORLD OIL PRICES (March 24-28, 2025, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude increased by about $1.90 per barrel.  The international prices of gasoline have also increased by about $2.10 per barrel along with kerosene by about $2.10 per barrel and diesel by around $1.70 per barrel. 

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

• Crude oil futures climbed as a decline in US crude oil inventories, indicating strong demand, coupled with rising geopolitical tensions, provided near-term support to the complex.
  • The US's increased sanctions on Iran in a bid to pressure Tehran to halt its nuclear program, coupled with tariffs on nations buying Venezuelan crude, resulted in higher crude prices.
  • The US plans to impose a 25% tariff on countries importing Venezuelan oil, including provisions to crack down on transshipment and evasion, according to an executive order issued late March 24.
  • Hopes of a permanent ceasefire fade as Moscow continues to launch attacks on Ukraine. A partial ceasefire agreement brokered in Saudi Arabia with US mediation emerged with term disagreements. Russia claiming the deal includes conditional lifting of sanctions on its banks and companies involved in agricultural trade, which the US has disputed.
  • On the supply side, markets were assessing the possibility of a full-scale war breaking out in South Sudan, East Africa's biggest oil producer, after the country's vice president was detained along with his wife. The detention collapses a 2018 peace deal that ended a five-year civil war.
• The Asian gasoline market strengthened ahead of refinery turnarounds in China and widened US RBOB-Brent crack. RFCC refinery outages in Taiwan and Malaysia also supported the complex while lower demand from Indonesia capped the gains.
• The Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil market weakened on a narrower backwardation structure, while demand was expected to remain lackluster.  Weak market sentiment remained despite China lowering its export quotas for clean oil products to 12.8 million mt for Q2 2025, compared to 19 million mt for Q1. 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 01 April 2025, local oil companies implemented a price increase of P1.40/liter for gasoline and P1.20/liter for diesel and kerosene.

Year-to-date, gasoline has a total net increase of P4.65/liter, diesel total net increase of P4.45 while kerosene has a total net increase of P0.90/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

•  https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila   

Other recommended reference sites:                

• http://www.aip.com.au/pricing   
•  http:/ /www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai  
• https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price