Oil Monitor as of 09 July 2024

Date published: July 10, 2024

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 1-5, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by almost $1.80 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased week-on-week by about $3.60, $1.30 and $1.70 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures held on to gains, helped by bullish US crude inventory data, concerns around the Atlantic hurricane season, and a growing geopolitical risk premium.
    • The US commercial crude stocks declined by 12.16 million barrels to 448.54 million barrels in the week ended June 28, EIA data showed July 3, marking the largest weekly draw since May 2023.
    • The latest forecasts from the US National Hurricane Center show Hurricane Beryl making landfall in northeast Mexico or southeast Texas early July 8. This track potentially threatens up to 1.7 million b/d of refining capacity between the US, primarily in Corpus Christi, and Mexico.
    • Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty persists with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, with the fear of escalation on the horizon.
  • The Asian gasoline complex strengthened despite a widening US RBOB-Brent crack, on the back of a drop in US stocks and expectation of lower exports from Japan amid unplanned refinery outages.
  • According to the US Energy Information Administration, the US gasoline inventories fell by 2.214 million barrels on the week to 231.672 million barrels as of June 28. Total US gasoline supplied -- a proxy for US gasoline demand -- rose 455,000 barrels to 9.424 million barrels during the week amid the summer driving season.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel complex fell as oversupply concerns resurfaced on weak Indian demand during the monsoon season.
  • Indian gasoil cargoes were seen moving to Australia as the country looks to cover the minimum stock obligation quotas applicable from July 1.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.11 to P58.67 from P58.78 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 09 July 2024, the oil companies implemented an increase on the prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene by P1.60, P0.65 and P0.60 per liter, respectively.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of the said respective products stand at net increase of P10.85/liter, P9.05/liter and P2.35/liter, respectively.

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1 Asia Pacific 05 July 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

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For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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