Oil Monitor as of 25 September 2024

Date published: September 25, 2024

WORLD OIL PRICES (September 16-20, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude increased by around $1.70 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased week-on-week by about $2.80, $0.60 and $0.50 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures settled higher as the market continued to digest the US Federal Reserve implementing a 50- basis point interest rate cut and US stock draw.
  • With the much-awaited US Federal Reserve's announcement easing monetary policy initiated muted reactions from markets but suggested that the US economy "is in a good place”.
    • Meanwhile, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted earlier to leave interest rates on hold at 5% as Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that the bank "needs to be careful" not to reduce interest rates too quickly.
  • On the supply side, the US Energy Information Administration's weekly oil stock numbers revealed Sept. 18 that US commercial crude inventories fell by 1.63 million barrels in week ended September 13, lower than the 1.96-million-barrel build reported by the American Petroleum Institute.
  • The Asian gasoline complex strengthened fueled by market reactions to the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut which is anticipated to boost gasoline demand in the US.
  • China's upcoming export quota, which could set the tone for the Asian market amid sluggish gasoline demand in China is closely monitored. However, gasoline allocations in China's export quota are expected to be low due to weaker refinery margins.
  • Gasoil/diesel cracks fell as demand remains low amid heavier than expected rainfall in India and slower demand growth in China. October onwards is seen to support consumption during harvesting season followed by winter heating demand.
  • Singapore's onshore commercial stocks of gasoil and jet fuel/kerosene fell by 6.23% over Sept. 12-18 to a 10-week low of 10.24 million barrels, as gasoil exports stayed robust. Imports fell sharply with notably no cargo arrivals from the Middle East or India, Enterprise Singapore data showed Sept. 19.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.45 to P55.75 from P56.20 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 24 September 2024, the oil companies implemented an increase of P1.20/liter for gasoline and P0.20/liter for diesel. There was no movement effected on the price of kerosene.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P5.85/liter and P1.95/liter, respectively, while kerosene remains at a total net decrease of P6.35/liter.

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1 Asia Pacific 20 September 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

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For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

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