LPG Monitor as of 03 March 2025


LPG Contract Price (CP) 

LPG Contract Price (CP), commonly called the “Saudi CP” is the primary driver of LPG pricing in the Far East including the Philippines. It is the international price benchmark set at the beginning of each month by Saudi Arabia’s state - owned oil company Saudi Aramco. 

Saudi Aramco's CPs, which set the price of propane and butane lifted from the Saudi Arabian ports of Yanbu, Ras Tanura and Ju'aymah under term supply contracts, are closely watched by the market as they tend to set a base level for LPG pricing for most markets of Suez. 

The DOE refers to the LPG/Saudi CP and monthly average forex in estimating the price adjustments of LPG in the domestic market. Following the timing of the monthly changes in CP, domestic price of LPG also changes every first day of the month and remain constant until the next adjustment in the succeeding month. 

Like all other oil products, the Philippines has no influence over the LPG CP as the country’s domestic requirement is insignificant versus the world demand. 

The LPG Contract Price for March is lower than the previous month by US$20.00 (3%) at US608.00/MT, and lower by US$29.00/MT (5%) compared to the same month last year at US$637.00/MT. 

 

International LPG Market Development1 

Market News reports cited the following bearish factors behind the decrease of the month’s LPG Contract Price: 

  • Saudi Aramco set its term contract prices for March at $615/mt for propane and $605/mt for butane, both lower than February's CPs.   

 

  • In February, around 440,273 mt of LPG world supply came from Saudi Arabia, significantly lower than in previous month at 709,000 mt and 695,072 mt in February 2024. 

 

  • In Asia, China received 2.625 million mt of LPG (2.092 million mt of propane and 444,000 mt of butane) in February, down 12.7% month over month but up 23% year over yearChina's propane inflows accounted for 79.7% of its total LPG imports in February, with most of the propane used as feedstock in the country's numerous propane dehydrogenation plants. 

  • Iran is China's second-largest LPG supplier after the US. In February, Iran's LPG inflows accounted for 24.38% of China's overall LPG imports and 65.57% of total inflows from Middle Eastern suppliers, according to the data. 

  • The market expects less LPG supply from the Middle East in the coming months, particularly from Saudi Aramco amid the startup of new propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants. 

  • In Europe market, demand for large propane cargoes has inched down as warmer temperatures see buyers shy away from propane for heating purposes. Particularly in Northwest Europe, supply of butane appeared to have inched up while gas going into Eastern Europe are flowing from Bulgaria and Romania. 

  • West Mediterranean LPG market fundamentals remained tight as turnarounds and strikes across the region caused logistical issues. 

  •  

Domestic Prices 

Most of the oil companies decreased their price of LPG, effective 01 March 2025, by P1.20/kg or about P13.20 per 11-kg cylinder.

Auto LPG likewise decreased by P0.86/liter. 

Starting 01 March 2025, household LPG in Metro Manila is estimated to range from around P851.00 to P1,131.00 per 11-kilogram cylinder. 

For more information, call the Department of Energy: 

Pricing: 840-2187 

LPG: 840-2130 

Fuels: 840-5669 

SMS: (0915) 4469421 

Website: www.doe.gov.ph 

 

LPG Monitor as of 01 February 2023



LPG Contract Price (CP)

LPG Contract Price (CP), commonly called the “Saudi CP” is the primary driver of LPG pricing in the Far East including the Philippines. It is the international price benchmark set at the beginning of each month by Saudi Arabia’s state - owned oil company Saudi Aramco.

Aramco's CPs, which set the price of LPG lifted from the Saudi ports Yanbu, Ras Tanura and Ju'aymah under term supply contracts, are closely watched by the market as they tend to set a base level for LPG pricing for most markets East of Suez.

The DOE refer to the LPG/Saudi CP and forex monthly average changes in determining/monitoring the price adjustments of LPG in the domestic market. Following the timing of the monthly changes in CP, domestic price of LPG also varies every first day of the month and remain constant throughout the whole month.

Like all other petroleum products, the Philippines has no influence over the LPG CP as the country’s domestic requirement is small versus the world demand.

For the month of February 2023, LPG Contract Price has increased by US$189.00/MT to US$ 790.00 /MT, from US$ 600.50/MT last month.

International LPG Market Development

News reports cited the following bullish factors behind the significant increase of the month’s LPG Contract Price:

  • Market perception of decreasing supply from Middle Eastern gas producers due to regular maintenance, particularly big producers – Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Saudi Aramco’s Yanbu gas plant, and a fall in supply from Iran.

o Iran has the world's second-largest gas reserves but has limited production due to US economic sanctions.

  • S&P Global estimated that Middle East LPG exports would drop 1 million-1.5 million mt this year on lower gas production following the OPEC+ decision Oct. 5 to cut the oil production quota by 2 million b/d from November 2022 to December 2023.

  • Along with the tight supply/demand for propane in the FOB Middle East market, China is estimated with increased demand. S & P Global Platts projected China's LPG imports to grow double digits in 2023 on expectations of competitive feedstock, though demand from propane dehydrogenation plants could be moderated by a gradual recovery in petrochemicals margins.

  • In the spot market, Indonesia's Pertamina issued a buy tender for an even-split cargo for Feb 28-Mar 4 loading from the Middle East. The company was reported to have
    bought a similar cargo for Feb 22-28 loading at a premium in the low single digit to the February CP.

Upon industry consultation, following factors were mentioned that affected the increase:

  • Pockets of demand in South Korea, China and Japan due to extended winter and unusual cold weather adds up to regional LPG demand, coupled with the unfortunate timing of maintenance by the big producers as presented in the foregoing.
  • Market betting on sentiments, visualizing how the market moves. Overall, market sentiments add a lot to price volatility.

Domestic Prices      

Oil companies increased the price of LPG effective 01 February 2023 by P10.00/kg to P11.20/kg or about P110.00-P123.00 per 11-kg cylinder.

Auto LPG likewise increased by P6.25/liter.

Starting 01 February 2023, household LPG in Metro Manila are estimated to range from P934.00 to P1,118.00 per 11-kilogram cylinder.

Shown below are the retail prices of 11 Kg. Household LPG
in Metro Manila from full year of 2022 to February 2023

Year Domestic
Price
Adjustment/Kg.
Increase (-Decrease)
2022  
January 750.00-1010.00 (2.55)
February 793.00-1053.00 4.00
March 880.00-1100.00 7.95
April 915.00-1160.00 3.25-3.40
May 885.00-1113.00 (5.75)-(5.73)
June 840.00-1027.00 (5.91)-(5.80)
July 840.00-1027.00 (0.40)-(0.36)
August 828.00-1000.00 (2.07)-(1.70)
September 815.00-1000.00 (1.81)-(1.50)
October 797.00-1000.00 (3.15)
November 797.00-1000.00 3.50-3.55
December 860.00-1020.00 2.25-2.27
2023    
January 824.00-995.00 (3.00)-(4.20)
February* 934.00-1118.00 10.00-11.20

Note: *Prices for February 2023 are estimates
 

For more information, call the Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.doe.gov.ph

 

 

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