LPG Monitor as of July 2021


LPG Contract Price (CP)

LPG Contract Price (CP), commonly called the “Saudi CP” is the primary driver of LPG pricing in the Far East including the Philippines.  It is the international price benchmark set at the beginning of each month by Saudi Arabia’s state - owned oil company Saudi Aramco.

Aramco's CPs, which set the price of LPG lifted from the Saudi ports Yanbu, Ras Tanura and Ju'aymah under term supply contracts, are closely watched by the market as they tend to set a base level for LPG pricing for most markets East of Suez.

The DOE refer to the LPG/Saudi CP and forex monthly average changes in determining/monitoring the price adjustments of LPG in the domestic market. Following the timing of the monthly changes in CP, domestic price of LPG also varies every first day of the month and remain constant throughout the whole month.

Like all other petroleum products, the Philippines has no influence over the LPG CP as the country’s domestic requirement is small versus the world demand.

For the month of July 2021, LPG Contract Price has increased by US$93.50/MT to US$ 620.00/MT, from US$ 526.50/MT last month.

International LPG Market Development

  • Saudi Aramco set its July propane term contract price (CP) at $620/mt, up $90/mt from June while the butane CP was also set at $620/mt, up $95/mt, versus last month.  LPG in the country is a combination of 30% propane and 70% butane.
     
  • The surging LPG prices according to world industry experts had been due to the tightening demand for the commodity as global economies recover from Covid-19 lockdowns.  Covid vaccine rollouts in big economies - China, the United States and European nations have been leading the recoveries.
     
  • Other countries are also reportedly starting to build up on their inventories to prepare for their heating requirements during the winter season; hence, giving heavier pressure on LPG demand.
    • Demand in South rebounds 14% after 3 months of falls
    • LPG imports by India in May rises to 1.057 million mt
    • China imported 2.24 million mt of LPG in May, up 11.5% month on month and 11.9% year on year, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed June 21.
       
  • On the supply side, while the Middle East spot supplies from Qatar and Kuwait remain steady, Saudi Arabia cut acceptances of term cargo nominations for July as the Persian Gulf market faces tight supply due reportedly to plant maintenance at Saudi Arabia's key refinery at Ras Tanura.
     
  • Traders also noted that July-loading cargoes from the US are showing signs of improvement, although the volumes are not yet ample enough to meet demand in Asia; thus, keeping prices in the region firm.
     

Domestic Prices      

Oil companies increased the price of LPG effective 01 July 2021 by P5.19 to P5.20/kg or about P57.09 to 57.20 per 11-kg cylinder. Auto LPG likewise increased by P2.90/liter.

As of 01 July 2021, household LPG in Metro Manila are estimated to range from P720.00 to P981.00 per 11-kilogram cylinder.

Shown below are the retail prices of 11 Kg. Household LPG
in Metro Manila from full year of 2020 to July 2021

Year Domestic
Price
Adjustment/Kg.
Increase (-Decrease)
2020  
January 677.00-829.00 7.55
February 655.00-778.00 -2.20
March 611.00-795.00 -3.90
April 501.00-770.00 -9.60 to -10.70
May 536.00-854.00 5.80
June 536.00-854.00 -0.28
July 560.00-780.00 0.50
August 550.00-780.00 0.15
September 560.00-720.00 0.15-0.18
October 528.00-820.00 1.00
November 539.00-850.00 3.20
December 557.00-860.00 0.96
2021    
January 600.00-905.00 4.16
February 634.00-937.00 2.95-3.00
March 640.00-946.00 0.73-0.82
April 605.00-784.00 -3.30
May 639.00-900.00 -3.20
June 600.00-920.00 2.18-2.20
July 720.00-981.00* 5.19-5.20

* Prices for July are estimates


For more information, call the Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.doe.gov.ph

 

LPG Monitor as of June 2021


LPG Contract Price (CP)

LPG Contract Price (CP), commonly called the “Saudi CP” is the primary driver of LPG pricing in the Far East including the Philippines. It is the international price benchmark set at the beginning of each month by Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco.

Aramco's CPs, which set the price of LPG lifted from the Saudi ports Yanbu, Ras Tanura and Ju'aymah under term supply contracts, are closely watched by the market as they tend to set a base level for LPG pricing for most markets East of Suez

The DOE refer to the LPG/Saudi CP and forex monthly average changes in determining/monitoring the price adjustments of LPG in the domestic market. Following the timing of the monthly changes in CP, domestic price of LPG also varies every first day of the month and remain constant throughout the whole month.

Like all other petroleum products, the Philippines has no influence over the LPG CP as the country’s domestic requirement is small versus the world demand.

For the month of June 2021, LPG Contract Price has increased by US$45.50/MT to US$ 526.50/MT, from US$ 481.00/MT last month.

International LPG Market Development

  • Saudi Aramco set its June propane term contract price (CP) at $530/mt,higher by $35/mt compared to May, while the butane CP was set at$525/mt, up $50/mt from May. The rise in June propane and butane CPs followed two consecutive months of declines.

The Philippine LPG is a combination of 30% propane and 70% butane.

 
  • The demand for Middle East LPG cargoes in Asia reportedly helps support the CPs.
  • Platts has stated that the healthy Middle Eastern supply, with major producers accepting June nominations without cuts or delays, help offset the relative shortfall of US LPG due to multiple cancellations of June-loading cargoes.
    • It noted that the arbitrage economics were looking less favorable for trans-Atlantic cargoes, with a strengthening pull from Asia on US tons.
    • Also, an earlier build-up in April and early May has yet to clear, withexcess tons still yet to be fully absorbed by the local market.
    • Several countries in Asia had decreased LPG consumption in April and May.
  • In India, total imports in April were about 26.5% lower than March, the second decline in a row, after imports in March fell 11% from a five -month high in February, the PPAC data showed. Reduced imports in April were in line with India's lower LPG consumption, which fell 6.5% on the month to 2.11 million mt, reportedly the lowest in 10 months and extending a downtrend for the fourth consecutive month.

    • Platts said that while demand and imports for May and June are set to remain soft, they are expected to improve starting July to help shore up an inventory shortfall, and as states brace for reopening from lockdowns in some cities.

  • April imports by South Korea were also down 2.6% year on year as demand eased, down for the third consecutive month to 9.29 million barrels in April, the country’s data showed.
  • Meanwhile, China imported 2 million mt of LPG in April, up 21% year on year and up 19% from March, according to its General Administration of Customs data.
    • Lower LPG supply from Chinese refineries due to maintenance encouraged domestic LPG terminals to increase imports to meet the supply gap.
    • The lower prices for April-delivery cargoes also supported higher imports in April, it noted.

      .

Domestic Prices      

Oil companies increased the price of LPG effective 01 June 2021 by P2.18 to P2.20/kg or about P38.72 to 40.48 per 11-kg cylinder. Auto LPG likewise increased by P1.25/liter.

As of 01 June 2021, household LPG in Metro Manila are estimated to range from P663.00 to P924.00 per 11-kilogram cylinder.

Shown below are the retail prices of 11 Kg. Household LPG
in Metro Manila from full year of 2020 to June 2021

Year Domestic
Price
Adjustment/Kg.
Increase (-Decrease)
2020  
January 677.00-829.00 7.55
February 655.00-778.00 -2.20
March 611.00-795.00 -3.90
April 501.00-770.00 -9.60 to -10.70
May 536.00-854.00 5.80
June 536.00-854.00 -0.28
July 560.00-780.00 0.50
August 550.00-780.00 0.15
September 560.00-720.00 0.15-0.18
October 528.00-820.00 1.00
November 539.00-850.00 3.20
December 557.00-860.00 0.96
2021    
January 600.00-905.00 4.16
February 634.00-937.00 2.95-3.00
March 640.00-946.00 0.73-0.82
April 605.00-784.00 -3.30
May 639.00-900.00 -3.20
June 663.00-924.00 2.18-2.20

Note: Prices for June are estimates


For more information, call the Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.doe.gov.ph

 

 

 

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