LPG Monitor as of December 2021


LPG Contract Price (CP)

LPG Contract Price (CP), commonly called the “Saudi CP” is the primary driver of LPG pricing in the Far East including the Philippines. It is the international price benchmark set at the beginning of each month by Saudi Arabia’s state - owned oil company Saudi Aramco.

Aramco's CPs, which set the price of LPG lifted from the Saudi ports Yanbu, Ras Tanura and Ju'aymah under term supply contracts, are closely watched by the market as they tend to set a base level for LPG pricing for most markets East of Suez.

The DOE refer to the LPG/Saudi CP and forex monthly average changes in determining/monitoring the price adjustments of LPG in the domestic market. Following the timing of the monthly changes in CP, domestic price of LPG also varies every first day of the month and remain constant throughout the whole month.

Like all other petroleum products, the Philippines has no influence over the LPG CP as the country’s domestic requirement is small versus the world demand.

For the month of December 2021, LPG Contract Price has decreased by US$78.50/MT to US$ 763.50 /MT, from US$ 842.00/MT last month.

International LPG Market Development

  • Saudi Aramco has set December propane term contract price at $795 per metric ton, down $75 from November, and butane CP at $750 per metric ton, $80 per metric ton lower than November. This was the first decrease after six straight monthly rises in CPs;
  • The lower December CP reflected more subdued market sentiment after Asian prices had jumped to around seven-year highs, dampening end users' appetite for costly domestic fuel and feedstock. It is also supported by healthy supplies from the Middle East and US;
  • Saudi Aramco announced December-loading of term LPG cargo nominations without cuts, delays and advancements, in line with lifters' nominations. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) and Qatar Petroleum (QP) had earlier announced acceptances of December-loading nominations without cuts or delays as well;
  • Overall, Platts noted that supply from the Middle East, including ample flows from Iran, is healthy enough to meet demand from North Asia during winter and from Chinese propane dehydrogenation plants that have raised production rates;
  • The steady supplies from the Middle East and US to Asia, along with recent spot offers, halted the propane price ascent beyond seven-year highs at $916.50 in October, Platts said.
  • On demand, Japan total LPG imports recovered by 13.46% from previous month to 826,000 metric ton in October. Propane imports rose 25% on the month to 763,000 metric tons, while butane imports slid 46.15% on the month to 63,000 metric tons;
  • South Korea LPG imports increased as well by 10% in October as demand increased by about 5% during the month. The month-on-month rebound in LPG consumption could be due to a higher vaccination rate, as 80% of the adult South Korean population was fully vaccinated in October;
  • The costlier LPG compared with naphtha in recent months has also turned petrochemical makers away from propane and butane as an alternate cracker feedstock. Currently, naphtha remains a more economical feedstock than LPG.

Domestic Prices      

Oil companies decreased the price of LPG effective 01 December 2021 by P4.37 to P4.75/kg or about P48.07 to 52.25 per 11-kg cylinder. Auto LPG likewise decreased by P2.65 to P2.66/liter.

As of 01 December 2021, household LPG in Metro Manila are estimated to range from P835.93 to P1,032.75 per 11-kilogram cylinder.

Shown below are the retail prices of 11 Kg. Household LPG
in Metro Manila from full year of 2020 to December 2021

Year Domestic
Price
Adjustment/Kg.
Increase (-Decrease)
2020  
January 677.00-829.00 7.55
February 655.00-778.00 -2.20
March 611.00-795.00 -3.90
April 501.00-770.00 -9.60 to -10.70
May 536.00-854.00 5.80
June 536.00-854.00 -0.28
July 560.00-780.00 0.50
August 550.00-780.00 0.15
September 560.00-720.00 0.15-0.18
October 528.00-820.00 1.00
November 539.00-850.00 3.20
December 557.00-860.00 0.96
2021    
January 600.00-905.00 4.15-4.20
February 634.00-937.00 2.95-3.00
March 643.00-946.00 0.73-0.82
April 605.00-784.00 (3.27) - (3.30)
May 639.00-900.00 (3.15) - (3.20)
June 600.00-920.00 2.18-2.44
July 655.00-960.00 5.19-5.20
August  710.00-992.00 3.27-3.35
September 780.00-995.00 0.64-0.65
October 832.00-1040.00 7.40
November 862.00-1074.00 2.73-3.10
December 835.93-1032.75* (4.37)-(4.75)

Note: *Prices for December are estimates
 

For more information, call the Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.doe.gov.ph

 

LPG Monitor as of November 01, 2021


LPG Contract Price (CP)

LPG Contract Price (CP), commonly called the “Saudi CP” is the primary driver of LPG pricing in the Far East including the Philippines. It is the international price benchmark set at the beginning of each month by Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco.

Aramco's CPs, which set the price of LPG lifted from the Saudi ports Yanbu, Ras Tanura and Ju'aymah under term supply contracts, are closely watched by the market as they tend to set a base level for LPG pricing for most markets East of Suez.

The DOE refer to the LPG/Saudi CP and forex monthly average changes indetermining/monitoring the price adjustments of LPG in the domestic market. Following the timing of the monthly changes in CP, domestic price of LPG also varies every first day of the month and remain constant throughout the whole month.

Like all other petroleum products, the Philippines has no influence over the LPG CP as the country’s domestic requirement is small versus the world demand.

For the month of November 2021, LPG Contract Price has increased by US$45.50/MT to US$ 842.00 /MT, from US$ 796.50/MT last month.

International LPG Market Development

  • Saudi Aramco set its November propane Contract Price at $870/mt, up $70/mt from the October CP, and the butane CP at $830/mt, $35/mt above October, the company said Oct. 31.
  • This is the sixth-straight monthly rise in the CPs and the highest since the February 2014 propane CP at $970/mt, and since the April 2014 butane CP which w as at $845/mt, S&P Global Platts data showed.
  • On LPG supply, Qatar petroleum, ADNOC and Aramco have reportedly announced acceptances of November term cargo nominations without cuts or delays.
  • Iran's LPG shipments were expected to reach around 440,000 -450,000 mt in October compared with 556,000 mt exported in September, largely to Asia, and are expected to rebound in November to levels seen in September, provided there are no plant shutdowns, Platts noted.
     
  • North Asian demand for propane is expected to be hea lthy, with Chinese propane dehydrogenation plants having returned from maintenance and started seeking cargoes, and on concerns over an early winter even as LPG stocks in Japan are at the bottom of the five-year range.

o Platts report said that September US imports account for 41% of China's total monthly intake. Lower freight rates coupled with stockpiling requirement for the winter encouraged Chinese buying for LPG cargoes from the US that hit a record high level.

  • Japan's total LPG demand rebounded by 16.48% on the month to 813,000 mt in September, following two straight months of decline. But total LPG imports retreated by 10.57% in September after rising for two consecutive months.
     
  • While Japan’s total LPG imports back to a downward track seen over Februar yJune, it was noted in October report that with inventory at the bottom of the five-year range heading into winters and economic recovery from COVID-19, imports are expected to increase this year to levels seen in 2019, at 10.8 million mt/year, up from 9.8 million mt/year in 2020.

Domestic Prices      

Oil companies increased the price of LPG effective 01 November 2021 by P2.73 to P3.10/kg or about P30.00 to P34.00 per 11-kg cylinder. Auto LPG likewise increased by P1.70 to P1.73/liter.

As of 01 November 2021, household LPG in Metro Manila are estimated to range from P862.00 to P1,074.00 per 11-kilogram cylinder.

Shown below are the retail prices of 11 Kg. Household LPG
in Metro Manila from full year of 2020 to November 2021

Year Domestic
Price
Adjustment/Kg.
Increase (-Decrease)
2020  
January 677.00-829.00 7.55
February 655.00-778.00 -2.20
March 611.00-795.00 -3.90
April 501.00-770.00 -9.60 to -10.70
May 536.00-854.00 5.80
June 536.00-854.00 -0.28
July 560.00-780.00 0.50
August 550.00-780.00 0.15
September 560.00-720.00 0.15-0.18
October 528.00-820.00 1.00
November 539.00-850.00 3.20
December 557.00-860.00 0.96
2021    
January 600.00-905.00 4.15-4.20
February 634.00-937.00 2.95-3.00
March 643.00-946.00 0.73-0.82
April 605.00-784.00 (3.27) - (3.30)
May 639.00-900.00 (3.15) - (3.20)
June 600.00-920.00 2.18-2.44
July 655.00-960.00 5.19-5.20
August  710.00-992.00 3.27-3.35
September 780.00-995.00 0.64-0.65
October 832.00-1040.00 7.40
November 862.00-1074.00* 2.73-3.10

Note: *Prices for November are estimates
 

For more information, call the Department of Energy:
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.doe.gov.ph

 

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