Oil Monitor as of 27 February 2024

Date published: February 28, 2024

WORLD OIL PRICES (February 19-23, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by almost $0.50 per barrel. On the contrary, MOPS (Mean of Platts Singapore) gasoline, diesel and kerosene have decreased by around $2.20, $3.20, and $2.60 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil prices traded higher on supply concerns as OPEC caps output and Red Sea risk persists. Positive cues from the Bank of Korea also possibly boosted the demand outlook, as it held its policy rate steady at 3.50%, in line with economists' expectations.
  • The ongoing threat to supply in the Middle East also supported crude prices. In a latest escalation between Israel and Hamas, the US vetoed a draft UN Security Council resolution on an immediate ceasefire Feb. 20.
  • But these are counterbalanced by economic concerns in the US and Europe. US-EIA reported increased crude oil inventories in the week ended Feb. 16 amid low refinery runs, and Germany's annual economic report, slow growth of the German economy at only 0.2% this year, far less than a previous forecast of 1.3%.
  • The Asian gasoline complex softened as the regional supply remains ample especially from Middle East however expectation of lower outflow from China in March provided a floor to the prices.
  • Good demands are expected from Malaysia and Indonesia on the back of upcoming festivities of Eid al-Fitr in April while Vietnam saw robust demand in January due to Lunar New Year.
  • The Asian gasoil/diesel complex was under pressure following recent additional ultra-low sulfur gasoil cargo sales from South Korea despite refinery maintenance activity, while expectations of higher outflows from China in March also weighed on prices.
    • Regional refineries are expected to continue prioritizing gasoil production over jet fuel/kerosene due to sustained strength in refinery margins.
    • China's March gasoil, jet fuel and gasoline exports have been estimated to be respectively around 1.06 million mt, 2.21 million mt and 730,000 mt.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.08 to P55.96 from P56.04 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 27 February 2024, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease in the price of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene by P0.70, P0.95 and P1.10, respectively.

Year-to-date adjustment of gasoline, diesel and kerosene stands at a net increase of P5.45/liter, P4.45/liter and P0.40/liter, respectively.

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1 Asia Pacific 09 February 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

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For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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