Oil Monitor as of 16 August 2024

Date published: August 16, 2024

 

WORLD OIL PRICES (August 5-9, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $4.10 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased week-on-week by about $5.70, $4.00 and $4.70 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures settled lower as traders weighed recession fears and downward pressure from steep selloffs in global financial markets against mounting geopolitical risks to supply.
    • Fears of slowing economic growth manifested in Japan's Nikkei 225 Index that plunge more than 12%, biggest fall since 1987 on Aug. 5
    • US’ Nasdaq was down 3.8% and S&P 500 dipped 3.3% during the week in New York trading.
  • Chinese demand also continued to pressure crude prices. Its crude oil imports dropped to 10.01 million b/d (42.34 million mt) in July, the lowest since 9.83 million b/d in September 2022.
  • Despite the downward pressure, the following provides floor to crude prices:
    • In week ended August 02, US commercial crude stocks fell 3.73 mil barrels to 429.32 mil.
    • Libya's largest oilfield (Sharara Field), producing roughly 250,000 b/d of oil was completely offline Aug. 5, after the son of eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar ordered a shutdown in response to a European arrest warrant.
    • Tension in the Middle East remain in focus on Iran’s pledge to respond to Israel's killing of Hamas military commander, despite international attempts of diplomatic solution to the ongoing conflicts.
  • For gasoline, the Asian market remained stable to weak, amid expectations of fresh resupply from the Arab Gulf and reduced outflows from the region. Additionally, the third batch of export quota from China likewise may potentially increase supply in the region.
    • In the US, EIA’s report showed gasoline stocks climbed 1.34 million barrels., an indication of weaker demand.
  • For Asian gasoil/diesel complex, fundamental was weak amid seasonal lull in demand and low activity observed ahead of the National Day long weekend in Singapore.
    • A drop-in freight rates could push supplies out of the region supporting the complex. However, reports of bankruptcy of two major e-commerce companies in South Korea was could potentially affect the country’s Q3 2024 diesel demand.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.78 to P57.64 from P58.42 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 13 August 2024, the oil companies implemented a decrease of P2.45/liter in gasoline, P1.90/liter in diesel and P2.40/liter in kerosene.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P7.05/liter and P4.75/liter, respectively. On the other hand, kerosene has a total net decrease of P3.15/liter.

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1 Asia Pacific 9 August 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:

 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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