Oil Monitor as of 06 August 2024

Date published: August 7, 2024

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 29-August 2, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by about $1.80 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased week-on-week by about $1.00, $1.20 and $1.10 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures fell on Chinese demand growth concerns and lower-than-expected US stock draw despite increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
    • As shown in the July 31 of the US Energy Information Administration, the US commercial crude stocks fell by 3.44 million barrels to 433.05 million barrels in the week to July 26. The draw was in line with seasonal norms but came below market expectations.
  • Ample Middle Eastern supply also continued to put pressure on prices, with OPEC+ cuts failing to tighten fundamentals as Iraq oversupplied oil during the first half of the year. Iraq has been the OPEC+ alliance's largest producer over its quota, with a cumulative 1.184 million b/d in the first half of the year.
  • Meanwhile, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East have risen to new highs with the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, a top Hamas leader, in Iran by Israeli forces.
    • The ceasefire in the Hamas-Israel conflict may now diminish, raising concerns that the escalating conflict involving Iran will possibly hamper crude exports.
  • The Asian gasoline complex was soft despite expectation of increased demand in the region, particularly imports from South Korea, Indonesia and Singapore.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel complex edged higher on expectations of lower exports from China. Gasoil exports for August are expected to be lower than July as key refiners run out of quota allocations, with new export quotas expected in September.
  • On the other hand, the Russian government is not planning to ban diesel exports, citing significant production and the stable market situation. The government had been mulling restrictions of diesel exports, particularly winter diesel, due to the start of autumn agricultural works, which typically boost diesel demand, and upcoming refinery turnarounds.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso has not moved this week versus the US dollar. Forex remains at P58.42.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 06 August 2024, the oil companies implemented a decrease of P0.10/liter in gasoline, P0.20/liter in diesel and P0.45/liter in kerosene.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P9.50/liter and P6.65/liter, respectively. On the other hand, kerosene has a total net decrease of P0.75/liter.

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1 Asia Pacific 2 August 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

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For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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