Oil Monitor as of 21 May 2024

Date published: May 21, 2024

WORLD OIL PRICES (May 13-17, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by almost $2.50 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased per barrel week-on-week by about $5.90, $1.50 and$ 1.50, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures fell as the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2024. However, the drawdown in US stocks, cooling inflation in US and softer dollar provided a floor to the prices.
    • Based on the US Energy Information Data (EIA), the US crude oil inventories fell by 2.51 million barrels to 457.02 million barrels in the week ended May 10.
    • The decline in the dollar followed a smaller-than expected rise in consumer prices in the US overnight, which in turn bolstered hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as soon as September.
  • The Asian gasoline complex strengthened, tracking a widening US RBOB-Brent crack and amid sluggish regional gasoline supplies.
  • A weakening 92 RON gasoline and naphtha reforming spread added to bearish sentiment along with weak demand from Vietnam post Ramadan.
  • Australia's minimum stockholding obligations have injected fresh demand into the Asian gasoil/diesel market. However, supplies remained plentiful amid influx of cargoes from India and the Middle East.
  • As reflected by the 2contango structure in the 3swap market, ample supply kept sentiment bearish.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.33 to P57.64 from P57.31 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 21 May 2024, the oil companies implemented a mixed adjustment on the price of petroleum products. Gasoline has decreased by P0.10 per liter while diesel and kerosene increased by P0.25 and P0.30 per liter, respectively.

Year-to-date adjustment of gasoline and diesel stand at net increase of P7.15/liter and P4.45/liter, respectively. Kerosene, on the other hand, has a net decrease of P1.35 per liter.

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1 Asia Pacific 17 May 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics
2 Contango is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price.
3 Swaps are customized contracts traded in the over the counter (OTC) market privately, versus options and futures traded on a public exchange.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:

 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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