Oil Monitor as of 22 August 2023

Date published: August 23, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (August 14-18, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $1.70/bbl. MOPS diesel decreased as well by nearly $1.00/bbl while MOPS gasoline and kerosene increased by about $1.00/bbl, and $0.25/bbl, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • According to the EIA’s weekly report for the week ended Aug. 11, they observed crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels, surpassing analysts’ expectations of a 2.3-million-barrel draw. It was driven largely by increased refinery runs and a surge in exports.
  • Furthermore, the safe-haven US dollar stayed relatively firm as it approached its highest levels in almost six-weeks, amid fears of an economic slowdown due to higher-for-longer interest rates by the US Federal Reserve.
  • Asian gasoline crack increased, tracking gains in US-RBOB Brent crack while demand remained firm in the region.
    • Asia’s gasoline supply was reportedly tight with some refineries in India shut for turnaround, and some unplanned outages in Northeast Asia, thereby keeping Asia's gasoline market buoyant. However, the market may experience some downward pressure in anticipation of the release of a new oil product export quota by China this month.
  • Gasoil/diesel crack fell, and market sentiment remained mixed due to low stock environment while unviable arbitrage economics trapped barrels within the region.
    • According to S&P Global, the gasoil Arab Gulf-Northwest Europe and Arab Gulf-Mediterranean arbitrage lanes were shut at disincentives of more than $2/b.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.53 to P56.69 from P56.16 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 22 August 2023, the oil companies implemented an increase of P1.10/liter for gasoline, P0.20/liter for diesel and P0.70/liter for kerosene.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net increase of P14.50/liter for gasoline, P8.80/liter diesel and P5.84/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:
    • https://www.doe.gov.ph/retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 18 August 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

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