Oil Monitor as of 19 September 2023

Date published: September 22, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (September 11-15, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $3.00/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased by about $4.30/bbl, $5.70/bbl, and $5.05/bbl, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Oil prices rose with market tightness outweighing disappointing Chinese data. Meanwhile, the strength in US dollar continued to put a lid on the upside of oil prices.
  • Energy supply risk continues to rise notably in the aftermath of Saudi Arabia and Russia's decision to rollover their voluntary production and export curbs to year-end.
    • With the loss of OPEC+ production from September onward, the effect would be a significant supply shortfall through the fourth quarter. Unwinding cuts at the start of 2024 would shift the balance to a surplus. However, oil stocks will be at uncomfortably low levels, increasing the risk of another surge in volatility.
  • The Asian gasoline complex strengthened, tracking gains in the US-RBOB Brent spread, despite US gasoline inventory building.
  • According to US Energy Information Administration data posted on September 13, the US RBOB-Brent crack expanded even as US gasoline supplies, a proxy for gasoline demand, fell by 1.014 million barrels on the week to 8.307 million barrels in the week ending September 8.
  • Strength in complex also seen amid expectations of firm Japanese gasoline import demand on the back of news that Japan would be extending fuel subsidies within the country beyond end-September.
  • Gasoil/diesel crack rose amid news of Russian cutting exports in September while the West is expected to pull barrels from the East in the absence of supply.
  • Around 12 big Russian refineries are set to carry out maintenance works in September, according to market sources. In addition to the heavy spring and autumn maintenance, ongoing railway delays have led to shortages at regional tank farms. As a result, the current dearth of diesel and gasoline supply is likely to last throughout September.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.05 to P56.71 from P56.76 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 18 September 2023, the oil companies implemented an increase of P2.00/liter for gasoline and kerosene while diesel has an increase of P2.50/liter.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net increase of P17.50/liter for gasoline, P13.60/liter diesel and P9.94/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:
    • https://www.doe.gov.ph/retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 15 September 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

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