Oil Monitor as of 10 October 2023

Date published: October 11, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (October 2-6, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $5.80/bbl. Additionally, MOPS prices for gasoline, diesel, and kerosene have fallen by around $8.70, $6.40, and $7.20 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Market focus turned to global macroeconomic worries following expected supply cut extensions by the OPEC+.
    • Crude moved lower as yields on the US 30-year Treasury bond briefly crossed above 5%, its highest since 2007, reflecting market positioning for higher interest rates, which could lead to slower economic growth and trim oil demand.
    • The OPEC+ ministerial panel made no changes to the group's oil output policy at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting Oct. 4, in line with market expectations. Saudi Arabia will continue with a voluntary cut of 1 million b/d until end-2023, while Russia will maintain a 300,000 b/d voluntary export curb.
  • The Asian gasoline complex weakened following a fall in the USRBOB-Brent crack as gasoline demand slumped in the US. Product supplied for gasoline, the EIA's proxy for demand, plunged 7% on week to 8.01 million b/d, the lowest outright demand level since early January and around 13% behind the five-year average for this time of year.
    • Due to a steep slowdown in demand, US gasoline stocks surged by 6.48 million barrels on week to a six-month high of 226.98 million barrels during the same period.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel crack dipped as Russia is expected to partially lift the ban on diesel exports. Northwest Europe faces poor buying demand due to unseasonably warm temperatures and a steep backwardation.
    • The Asian gasoil market softened on a potential uptick in supply following news that Russia could partially lift bans on diesel exports in the coming days. The ban was enacted on Sept. 21, buoying gasoil markets with a tight supply outlook. But limited storage capacity and the potential impact on Russian tax revenues mean the ban could likely be short-lived.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.13 to P56.72 from P56.85 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 10 October 2023, the oil companies implemented a decrease of P3.05/liter for gasoline, P2.45/liter for diesel and P3.00/liter for kerosene.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net increase of P12.25/liter for gasoline, P11.35/liter diesel and P5.94/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:
    • https://www.doe.gov.ph/retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 05 October 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

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