Oil Monitor as of 12 September 2023

Date published: September 12, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (September 4-8, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $3.60/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased by about $0.05/bbl, $0.60/bbl, and $0.40/bbl, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Oil price rose on tight supply fundamentals after Saudi Arabia and Russia announced the extension of voluntary production cuts through the end of 2023 and US crude stocks showed a larger-than-expected decline.
    • Furthermore, US commercial crude oil inventories saw a larger-than-expected 6.31-million-barrel draw in the week to Sept. 1. The fourth consecutive weekly draw put inventories 5% behind the 2017-2021 average and brought the cumulative decline to nearly 29 million barrels since early August.
  • On the other hand, weak China trade data reaffirmed views that the country's economic recovery is slowing, adding to bearish sentiment around weaker China demand outlook. A stronger dollar also added headwinds for crude prices.
  • Asian gasoline crack fell as Chinese exports are expected to stay firm on the back of the release of new oil product export quotas. Japan has extended fuel subsidies as retail gasoline prices hit record highs.
    • Japan’s retail gasoline prices have risen for 16 straight weeks to a fresh record high of Yen 186.5/liter ($1.27/liter) as of Sept. 4. Without the subsidy, the price would have been Yen 9.2/liter higher.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel crack strengthened amid stable regional demand and improving East-West arbitrage economics. Chinese outflows may rise in September despite of expectations of peak domestic demand season.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.09 to P56.76 from P56.67 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 12 September 2023, the oil companies implemented an increase of P0.20/liter for gasoline, P0.40/liter for diesel and P0.20/liter for kerosene.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net increase of P15.50/liter for gasoline, P11.10/liter diesel and P7.94/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:
    • https://www.doe.gov.ph/retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 08 September 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

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