Oil Monitor as of 03 October 2023

Date published: October 4, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (September 25-29, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $0.60/bbl. MOPS diesel has also increased by about $0.60/bbl. In contrast, the price of MOPS gasoline and MOPS kerosene has dropped by about $6.00 and $1.25 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • A stronger US Dollar and growing global demand concerns have added headwinds to crude futures. However, tightness in the global supply demand fundaments is providing support to the complex.
    • The US dollar has pushed to fresh highs in recent days after the US Federal Reserve Chairman reaffirmed the banks hawkish monetary policy stance and suggested that interest rates would remain elevated well into 2024.
    • Concerns over China's economic stability have resurfaced, driven by the deepening financial crisis at China Evergrande Group. A unit of property giant China Evergrande Group missed a bond repayment due Sept. 25, fueling concerns of a deepening crisis in the country's critical real estate sector.
    • Following Russia's ban on diesel and gasoline exports as well as Saudi Arabia and Russia extending production curbs on crude oil until the end of this year, supply-side concerns remain the key driving force for prices for now.
  • Asian gasoline crack fell as US RBOB-Brent spread softened and US demand seen declining from its peak with the onset of winters.
    • The Asian gasoline complex softened as market participants expected Chinese gasoline exports to remain firm in anticipation of the release of a new Chinese oil product export quota. However, three Beijing-based trading officials with knowledge of the matter have now said that the Chinese government will not issue new quotas for clean oil product exports this year.
  • Russia’s ban on exports of diesel continues to underpin strength in the Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil complex.
    • ​The Asian gasoil market could become very bullish with the ban. There are heavy turnarounds happening in Europe and the US, so buyers in Europe will likely have to pull barrels from Asia or the Arab Gulf.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.03 to P56.85 from P56.82 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 03 October 2023, the oil companies implemented a decrease of P2.00/liter for gasoline and P0.50/liter for kerosene. On the opposite diesel has increased by P0.40/liter.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net increase of P15.30/liter for gasoline, P13.80/liter diesel
and P8.94/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:
    • https://www.doe.gov.ph/retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 29 September 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Pages