Oil Monitor as of 31 October 2023

Date published: October 31, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (October 23-27, 2023, trading days)

 The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by more than $1.40/bbl. Similarly, MOPS diesel and kerosene prices have also decreased by around $3.60 and $3.00 per barrel, respectively. On the contrary, MOPS gasoline has increased by nearly $0.90 per barrel.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude prices moved lower, shedding gains from the previous session on the controlled situation since Israel-Gaza outbreak. Meanwhile, strong US economic data suggested longer than expected high interest rate environment posing threat to the demand outlook in the short term.
    • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a prime-time speech Oct. 25, reaffirmed his commitment to a ground offensive to root out Hamas, prompting oil markets to tack on risk premiums they had shed in previous sessions.
  • Moreover, US commercial crude inventories climbed 1.37 million barrels to 421.12 million barrels in the week to Oct. 20, widening the deficit to the five-year average to 5.1% from 4.7% the week prior.
  • Asia gasoline market saw some support from the spot demand pockets coming up from India and Japan due to unplanned refinery outages while Indonesia is also expected to see increase in demand amid election season that kicked off in the second half of October.
  • Additionally, China’s gasoline exports are expected to fall moving into the end of the year on the back of limited export quota availability.
  • On gasoil/diesel, increasing supply length weighed on Asian complex in the week while demand from India remains strong amid ongoing festive season.
    • Gasoil supply outflows from China to fall by around 0.3 mt in November from over 1 million mt in October. The decline comes as almost 80% of the three export quotas have been utilized, thus the possibility of insufficient export quotas in the fourth quarter.

 

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.06 to P56.85 from P56.79 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 31 October 2023, the oil companies implemented a mixed adjustment on the price of petroleum products. The price of kerosene and diesel has dropped by P1.20 and P1.25 per liter, respectively. On the other hand, the price of gasoline increased by P0.45 per liter.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net increase of P14.20/liter for gasoline, P10.45/liter for diesel and P5.04/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:

 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 27 October 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

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