Oil Monitor as of 05 September 2023

Date published: September 7, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (August 28 - September 01, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $0.80/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased by about $0.30/bbl, $1.70/bbl, and $2.00/bbl, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Oil prices rose in the week as sentiment was bolstered by large US inventory draw, expected rise in US Q2 GDP, economic stimulus package in China and small rise in China’s PMI data for August over July.
    • The US-EIA report, in week ended August 25, disclosed a decrease in US crude inventories by 10.6 million barrels to 422.94million barrels, driven by strong refinery demand and a surge in exports. Crude stocks fell 22.7 million barrels over the past three weeks, putting stocks at nearly 3% below the five-year average and at the lowest outright level since the week ended Dec. 30, 2022.
  • The Asian gasoline complex softened as market participants continue to expect Chinese exports to rise in September, on the back of the release of a third batch oil product export quota by China.
    • China's gasoline exports are expected to rise month on month to one million mt or more in September up from an estimated 800,000 mt to one million mt in August.
    • Reports also said that Indonesia's import demand for 92 RON and above gasoline may increase amid news that the government was considering subsidizing 92 RON gasoline domestically.
  • Gasoil/diesel crack fell amid expectations of rising exports from China in September however firm East-West arbitrage economics provided floor to the market.
    • Market participants believed that regional demand remains robust and should be able to absorb surplus barrels from China. Industry sources estimate that China's planned exports for September will comprise 1.12 million mt of gasoil.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.14 to P56.67 from P56.53 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 05 September 2023, the oil companies implemented an increase of P0.50/liter for gasoline, P1.20/liter for diesel and P1.10/liter for kerosene.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net increase of P15.30/liter for gasoline, P10.70/liter diesel and P7.74/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:
    • https://www.doe.gov.ph/retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 01 September 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

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