Oil Monitor as of 08 August 2023

Date published: August 9, 2023

 

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 31-August 4, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $1.75/bbl. MOPS diesel and kerosene have also increased by about $8.60/bbl and $6.10/bbl, respectively. On the contrary, MOPS gasoline has decreased by nearly $0.60/bbl.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Oil prices rose this week due to lower July OPEC output and US crude inventory draw. However, the gains were largely outweighed by looming macro-economic concerns. Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their supply cuts through at least September.
    • OPEC production data from July showed a 0.9 million b/d month-on-month decline to 27.8 million b/d amid a swathe of voluntary output cuts by members of the group.
    • Saudi Arabia will continue the 1 million b/d cut that is holding crude production at a two-year low of 9 million b/din September, while Russia is tapering its 500,000 b/d export cut for August to 300,000 b/d for September.
    • US crude oil inventories fell by a record 17 million barrels in the week to July 28 the US-EIA data showed.
  • Asian gasoline crack softened amid expectation of higher exports from China however US demand stays firm amid falling stocks.
    • Market continues to expect China to release new oil product export quota followed by a rise in Chinese gasoline exports. Exports are also anticipated to rise on the back of a possible drop in domestic demand amid heavy flooding in the country.
    • China is expected to export as much as 1.2 million mt of gasoline in August up from an estimated 900,000 mt in July.
    • Some market participants said that the US RBOB-Brent crack narrowed as US demand was expected to face some downward pressure moving to the end of the summer driving season.
  • Asian gasoil crack strengthened amid lower regional supplies on the back of few refinery turnarounds in Asia and Europe while lifting of the fishing ban in China from mid-Aug provides boost to the demand sentiment.
  • Chinese gasoil outflows are estimated at 600,000 mt for August, down from 1 million mt in July. Also, outflows from South Korea are likely to recede on the back of scheduled turnaround at Daesan complex from August to mid-September.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.48 to P55.13 from P54.64 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 08 August 2023, the oil companies implemented an increase of P0.50/liter for gasoline, P4.00/liter for diesel and P2.75/liter for kerosene.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net increase of P11.50/liter for gasoline, P7.10/liter diesel and P2.60/liter, respectively.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:
    • https://www.doe.gov.ph/retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 04 August 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

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