Oil Monitor as of 11 July 2023

Date published: July 11, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 3-7, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $1.00/bbl. MOPS diesel as well as kerosene have also both increased by about $1.60/bbl and $1.40/bbl, respectively. On the contrary MOPS gasoline has decreased by nearly $0.80/bbl in the same comparative week.

 

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Oil prices inched up this week supported by an estimated sharp fall in US crude oil inventories and extended OPEC+ cut while gains were capped by expected hike in interest rates and slowdown of China’s economic recovery.
  • Crude prices saw only marginal gains following the announcement by OPEC+ to extend the voluntary cuts into August, and on reports related with a slowdown of China’s economic recovery.
  • Asian gasoline crack eased as South and Southeast Asian demand is expected to fall due to monsoons.
  • Asian gasoline crack eased as South and Southeast Asian demand is expected to fall due to monsoons.

o Total US gasoline stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels on the week to 219.5million barrels in the week ended June 30. Moving forward, some market participants expect US gasoline demand to taper off towards the end of driving season in September.

o South and Southeast Asia’s gasoline demand is expected to fall amid the ongoing monsoon season. While Singapore’s net gasoline exports fell due to less imports by Indonesia.

  • Asian gasoil/diesel crack strengthened but China’s gasoil exports are expected to rise in July amid unviable East-West arbitrage economics in Asia.

o China’s gasoil exports are expected to rise to about 0.8 million to 0.9 million mt in July on improving export margins and moderating domestic demand. The newly implemented consumption taxes on gasoil/gasoline blending materials are unlikely to cause a shortage of supplies in the domestic market.

o The outlook for H2 July is mired by an anticipated spike in Chinese exports and unviable East-West arbitrage economics. While demand from west remains choppy, regional demand has been stable but an increase in gasoil supply from China is expected to dent market sentiment.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.10 to P55.39 from P55.49 in previous week.

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 11 July 2023, the oil companies implemented a decrease of P0.20/liter for gasoline, while an increase of P0.75/liter and P0.50/liter have been effected for diesel and kerosene, respectively.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net decrease of P2.95/liter for diesel and P5.50/liter for kerosene. Gasoline, on the other hand, has a net increase of P5.65/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link:
    • https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 07 July 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights

 

 

Pages