Oil Monitor as of 20 June 2023

Date published: June 20, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (June 12-16, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $1.85/bbl. MOPS gasoline has also decreased by about $1.00/bbl, so as diesel by $0.25/bbl and kerosene by about $0.60/bbl in the same comparative week.

 

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Oil prices slipped as recent data continued to point to a lukewarm recovery in the Chinese economy, fueling concerns over demand outlook. The US Fed’s decision to pause its tightening cycle lent support to the markets.

o The market was further supported after the IEA in its June report raised its global oil demand growth forecast by 200,000 b/d to 2.4 million b/d in 2023, with oil demand for transportation likely to peak in 2026 and overall oil demand to peak by the end of the decade.

o In 2024, the IEA expects demand to moderate, with annual growth of 860,000b/d and a 2 million b/d drop in demand between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.

  • Oil prices edged lower in early trade on Friday, taking a pause from the previous session when futures gained steeply on optimism around higher energy demand from top crude importer China2.

  • Asian gasoline crack eased, while the US RBOB-Brent spread widened despite of a larger-than-expected weekly build in US gasoline stocks.

  • Asian gasoil/diesel crack rose as sentiment received support from a widening East-West arbitrage spread.

  • In India, Cyclone Biparjoy has made landfall in the western Gujarat state and is likely to weaken gradually as it moves inland, with flooding becoming the most significant impact. Gasoil loading from Sikka could potentially be delayed by around five to seven days.

  • On inventory, Singapore’s onshore commercial stocks of middle distillates rose on week to a nine-week high of 8.61 million barrels over June 8-14. Posting its fourth consecutive week of increase on the back of sustained weakness in the East-West arbitrage economics.

 

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.14 to P55.97 from P56.11 in previous week.

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 20 June 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease of P0.35 for gasoline, P0.10 for diesel and P0.30 for kerosene.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net decrease for diesel at P4.05/liter and kerosene at P6.35/liter. Gasoline, on the other hand, has a net increase of P6.35/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link:
    • https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 16 June 2023 by S&P Global Platts Analytics
2 Reuters Report, 16 Jun 2023

 

 

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