Oil Monitor as of 23 May 2023

Date published: May 23, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (May 15-19, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $1.20/bbl. MOPS kerosene has declined by $0.75/bbl contrary to MOPS gasoline and diesel that have increased by about $1.10 and $0.50, respectively, during the reference week.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Oil futures prices rebounded amid growing optimism over the US debt ceiling negotiations. But gains were capped by a build in US crude inventories, a stronger US dollar and weaker-than-expected economic data from China.

o On demand, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 16 showed that China’s economic indicators for April, including industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment, broadly fell short of market expectations, suggesting a slower-than-expected recovery.

o The IEA in the May Oil Market Report raised its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2023 to 2.2 million b/d, around 200,000 b/d higher than last month’s forecast, with China’s rebound even stronger than previously expected.

  • Asian gasoline crack strengthened, tracking a widening US RBOB-Brent spread, as US gasoline stocks tightened ahead of the peak summer driving season.

o EIA data showed US gasoline inventories decreased by 1.38 million barrels to 218.33 million barrels in the week ended May 12.

  • Asian gasoil/diesel crack rose on expectations of leaner supply from South Korea amid scheduled refinery turnarounds and easing Chinese supplies amid unfavorable export margins.

o Platts stressed that at least 600,000-800,000 barrels are expected to be absent from the market.

  • Singapore’s onshore commercial stocks of middle distillates, which include diesel, was estimated to stood at a 11-week low of 7.47million barrels over May 11-17, marking the seventh consecutive week of decline per Enterprise Singapore data, as ongoing regional turnarounds trimmed export availabilities from some North Asian refiners and prompted drawdowns in middle distillate stocks.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.35 to P55.99 from P55.63 in previous week.

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 23 May 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter increase of P0.80 for gasoline and P0.60 for diesel. On the positive note, kerosene has decreased by P0.10 per liter.

These resulted to a year-to-date net decrease for diesel at P5.05/liter and kerosene at P6.40/liter. Gasoline, on the other hand, has a net increase of P5.00/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link:
    • https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 19 May 2023 by S&P Global Platts Analytics

 

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