Oil Monitor as of 25 July 2023

Date published: July 26, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 17-21, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $0.60/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased by about $4.25/bbl, $1.70/bbl and $1.80/bbl, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • A fall in US crude oil inventories provided some floor as the US-EIA data showed crude stocks fell by 708,000 barrels in the week ended July 14 to 457.4 million barrels.
    • Market also showed some strength due to lower inflation reading and industrial output numbers in Europe as evidence of a possible pause in central bank rate hikes. The US industrial production also fell by 0.5% month-on-month in June, against the expected 0% change. That also gave the market a heads-up that future rate hikes might be on hold.
  • Meanwhile the lending rates by People’s Bank of China were kept unchanged on July 20, although analysts speculate rate cuts going forward, to support the dented economy.
  • Asian gasoline crack rose behind the firm US demand due to rising temperatures while import demand from Japan was also strong due to refinery issues in the country.
  • Overall gasoline demand in South and Southeast Asia is expected to fall amid the ongoing monsoon season while some strength was seen in Asian gasoline prices due to firm demand from Vietnam and Saudi Arabia.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel crack strengthened amid low stocks in ARA2 and lower exports expected from South Korea for August. Refiners in South Korea allocate volume to the domestic market as retail diesel prices will continue to reflect a tax cut of 37% until end-August.
  • Industry sources, however, maintained that gasoil market continues to picture weak regional demand outlook.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.50 to P54.50 from P55.00 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 25 July 2023, the oil companies implemented an increase of P1.35/liter for gasoline, P0.45/liter for diesel and kerosene by P0.35/liter.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net decrease of P0.40/liter for diesel and P3.35/liter for kerosene. Gasoline, on the other hand, has a net increase of P8.90/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link:
    • https://www.doe.gov.ph/retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 21 July 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights

2The Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region, or ARA region, is one of the world's primary oil hubs detailed with its physical infrastructure, pricing benchmarks, and massive oil consumption.

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