WORLD OIL PRICES (January 06-10, 2025, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $1.23 per barrel.  The international prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased by about $0.85, $0.98 and $1.41 per barrel, respectively.  

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

The week’s price rally reflects a convergence of bullish factors, including risk of US sanctions on Russia and seasonal winter demand strength. 

• Crude oil futures were slightly higher on Monday, as cold blasts in the US and Europe supported the firm start to 2025. The impact of colder weather across the northern hemisphere had helped lifts benchmarks.  Several US states have declared a state of emergency as thousands of flights, air and road travel plans have been cancelled.²
• Crude oil futures extended as the Arctic blast sweeping across parts of US supported oil demand expectations.  Frigid weather conditions across much of the US have resulted in a temporary boost to energy prices.
• Declining in stockpiles at the NYMEX delivery hub of Cushing further boosting fundamentals. 
• US-EIA inventor data fell 2.5 mil barrels to 20.04 mil barrels in the week to Jan. 3, the largest one-week draw at Cushing since August 2023 and the lowest outright level since the week ended Oct. 10, 2014.
• U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tighten global supplies, which may lead India and China to seek Middle Eastern crudes.
• However, a rise in crude prices is limited by disappointing Chinese economic data. The country's CPI index rose only 0.1% year-on-year in December while the producer price index (PPI) fell 2.3% between December 2023 and December 2024.
• The Asian gasoline market weakened on rising US Commercial inventories.  India’s gasoline demand fell despite the year-end holidays.  India is expected to see firm domestic demand for gasoline in January and February amid the ongoing wedding season period.
• The Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil/diesel market softened on a bearish market outlook as Indonesia’s gasoil imports shrunk in November while stocks in Europe surged amid high US diesel inflows.  The Europe market is well-supplied with domestic weak demand.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 14 January 2025, the oil companies implemented an increase of P0.80/liter for both gasoline and kerosene while diesel increased by P0.90/liter.

This is the second price adjustment for the year 2025. Gasoline and kerosene have a total net increase of P1.80/liter; diesel has a total net increase of P2.30/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

•  https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila   

Other recommended reference sites:                

• http://www.aip.com.au/pricing   
•  http:/ /www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai  
• https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price