Oil Monitor as of 05 November 2024

Date published: November 8, 2024

WORLD OIL PRICES (October 28-November 1, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $2.10 per barrel. The international price of gasoline and diesel have also decreased week-on-week by about $1.90 and $0.05 per barrel, respectively. On the contrary, the international price of kerosene has increased by nearly $0.45 per barrel.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • The tensions in the Middle East eased following targeted Israeli airstrikes on Iran that did not impact oil infrastructure, reducing fears of supply disruption.
  • Market participants await the Federal decision on interest rates following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting over Nov. 6-7.
    • Expectations remain that the Feds will opt for a slow easing of rates which would see the US dollar remain firm which will likely weigh on oil demand.
  • The decrease in US crude inventory was overshadowed by bearish fundamentals, including slowdown in refinery demand.
    • The US-EIA data showed US commercial crude stocks fell by 520,000 barrels to 425.51 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 25. The draw ran counter to seasonal trends but was in line with recent market expectations.
  • The Asian gasoline complex was higher, supported by firm demand from India ahead of Diwali festivities.
    • India's gasoline demand dropped 6.3% month on month but advanced 3% year on year to 3.149 million mt, driven by stronger-than-expected rainfall in September data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell showed Oct. 29. However, domestic demand in India is expected to pick up in October amid Diwali.
  • On supply, China is expected to export 800,000 mt of gasoline in November, up from 600,000-700,000 mt of gasoline in October. Meanwhile, exports from South Korea are expected to remain low amid refinery run cuts.
  • The Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil/diesel crack was supported by a tight supply amid ongoing refinery issues at Pertamina's Balikpapan refinery in Indonesia.
  • Meanwhile, China's exports of gasoil have remained low for 2024 thus far. Over January-September, China's gasoil outflows totaled 7.06 million mt, down 35% from 10.86 million mt the same period a year ago, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.49 to P58.26 from P57.77 in the previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 05 November 2024, oil companies implemented a decrease of P0.20/liter for gasoline while diesel and kerosene have increased by P0.75/liter and P0.50/liter, respectively.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P8.65/liter and P7.30/liter, respectively. On the other hand, kerosene has a total net decrease of P2.60/liter.

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1 Asia Pacific 01 November 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

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For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

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