Oil Monitor as of 28 January 2025

Date published: January 30, 2025

WORLD OIL PRICES (January 20-24, 2025, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $0.60 per barrel. The international prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased by about $2.60, $1.70 and $1.30 per barrel, respectively. 

Reasons for the Price Adjustment

The week’s price rally reflects bearish market factors, which include easing geopolitical stress in Gaza, expectation of increased US oil production and fewer rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. 

  • Crude oil futures were lower due to expectations of increased U.S. production under President Trump’s pro-drilling policies and easing geopolitical stress in Gaza, lifting fears of further escalation in supply disruption from key producing regions.
  • Yemen’s Houthi militants announced a major pullout from attacks against shipping in the Red Sea Jan. 20 stating they will only target ships with strong links to Israel following the Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.
  • If the Houthi promise is fully implemented, tankers currently taking the longer route would return to their normal course via the Suez Canal, saving time and fuel and adding to their supply for loading in the Persian Gulf.
  • China’s clean oil product exports could drop due to the Lunar New Year holidays, a shorter month and a throughput cut due to tight feedstock supplies amid the recent sanction on Russia and Iran.
  • The Asian gasoline market remained weak on limited regional demand and anticipated higher inflows from Northeast Asia and Middle East, easing supply deficit in the region.
  • The impact of lower Chinese exports on gasoline prices would be moderated by additional inflows from South Korea and Middle East, while demand in Southeast Asia was also sluggish amid monsoon seasons.
  • The Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil market continued to slide on weak market fundamentals.

FOREX:  The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.07 to P58.52 from P58.58 in the previous week.   

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 28 January 2025, the oil companies implemented a decrease of P0.80/liter for gasoline, P0.20/liter for diesel and P0.50/liter for kerosene.

This is the fourth price adjustment for the year 2025.   Gasoline has a total net increase of P2.65/liter so as diesel of P4.80/liter; kerosene has a total net increase of P3.80/liter.

 

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:                

1 Asia Pacific 24 January 2025 Weekly Oil Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

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