Oil Monitor as of 12 November 2024

Date published: November 18, 2024

WORLD OIL PRICES (November 4-8, 2024, trading days) 

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by almost $1.70 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased week-on-week by about $2.50, $3.70 and $2.20 per barrel, respectively. 

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude futures settled higher as hurricane Rafael shuts 22.4% of the US Gulf’s crude oil production and on OPEC’s announcement of delaying production hikes while the market continue to digest US election results, and a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
  • With Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico, 11 companies reported oil and gas production shut ins. In total, 22.4% of oil production at 391,214 b/d was shut in, while 9.7% of gas production was shut in, equaling to about 181,000 bcf/d, BSEE data showed Nov. 7
  • However, US dollar strength counters the support of the latest OPEC announcement of delaying production hikes to January 2025 weighed on oil prices.
  • The Asian gasoline market softened week on week but is expected to stay strong supported by robust buying interest during the early week trading window of Nov. 4. This buying momentum is likely to continue, driven by regional supply constraints.
  • Meanwhile, gasoline consumption in Taiwan dropped in September, latest data from the Ministry of Economic Affairs' Energy Administration showed. This decrease was attributed to delayed refinery restarts and the impact of a typhoon that hit Taiwan.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel complex moderated week on week but remained supported as tight supply continued to fuel the strength, with the market structure and cash differential seeing gains. According to some sources, low Chinese exports are the main reasons for the upward trend while market participants await fresh pricing cues ahead the start of the December-loading spot program.
  • More of Indian and Persian Gulf cargoes are expected flowing East due to continued East-West weakness that may put some limit on the premiums.
  • India's gasoil consumption climbed around 20% month over month to 7.64 million mt in October, recovering from a two-year low in September when high rainfall dampened agricultural and industrial activity, latest data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell showed.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.23 to P58.49 from P58.26 in the previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 12 November 2024, oil companies implemented an increase of P1.50/liter for gasoline, P2.10/liter for diesel and P1.20/liter for kerosene. 

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P10.15/liter and P9.40/liter, respectively. On the other hand, kerosene has a total net decrease of P1.40/liter. 

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1 Asia Pacific 08 November 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics 

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:

 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

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