WORLD OIL PRICES (January 9-13, 2023 trading days)
The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $.70/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased by about $2.60, $2.70 and $1.25 per barrel, respectively.
Reasons for the Price Adjustment1
- Crude oil futures recouped losses this week, shrugging off a bearish report from the US EIA predicting that oil prices would likely decline this year and a large weekly build in US crude stocks.
o Easing US inflation with the December consumer prices falling for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years offered hopes that inflation is now on a sustained downtrend and fueled expectations the Federal Reserve may have leeway to scale back the size of future interest rate hikes.
o Demand optimism stemmed from China’s re-opening efforts and the issuance of a second batch of crude oil import quotas also lifted market sentiment.
- On the supply side:
o The US EIA in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Russia’s liquid fuels production would fall 1.4 million b/d in 2023 to 9.5 million b/d and dip another 100,000 b/d to average 9.4 million b/d in 2024, while the US and non-OPEC producers are expected to add 2.4 million b/d of oil production in 2023 and another 1.1 million b/d in 2024.
- On the inventory front:
o US commercial crude stocks saw the largest build in nearly two years during the week ended January 6, up 18.96 million barrels on week to a nine-week high of 439.61 million barrels, as refinery crude intakes remained reduced following widespread outages caused by a late December cold snap.
o US SPR crude stocks drew by 0.8million barrels to 371.58million barrels over the same period.
- On regional demand/supply:
o Vietnam’s gasoline imports were down 15.5% on month to 259,794 mt in December despite domestic demand was expected to rise on year-end festivities.
o India’s gasoline consumption increased 4.6% on month to 2.98 million mt in December, the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) data showed. But consumption is expected to dip in January as domestic demand tapers off following the year-end holidays.
o China’s gasoline demand is expected to stay supported by an anticipated increase in gasoline consumption over the Lunar New Year holiday, contributing to a decline in Chinese exports this month..
o Asian gasoil/diesel rebounded on week as of Jan. 12 Asian close, averaging $34.19/b in January to date, compared with $36.75/b in December $41.58/bin November and $46.00/b in October.
o European heating demand for gasoil has been weak due to warmer-than-expected winter temperatures.
FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.81 to P55.03 from P55.83 in previous week.
DOMESTIC OIL PRICES
Effective 17 January 2023, the oil companies implemented the third adjustment for the year 2023: increase in gasoline by P0.95/liter and diesel by P0.50/liter. On the opposite a P0.15/liter decrease has been effected on the price of kerosene.
These resulted to total adjustments this year to stand at net increase of P3.10/liter for gasoline, and P0.80/liter for kerosene; diesel at net decrease of P0.20/liter.
For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.
Other recommended reference sites:
• http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
• http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
• https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price
For more information, call the
Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph
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1 Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics