Oil Monitor as of 03 January 2023

Date published: January 6, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (December 26-30, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $2.40/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel, and kerosene have also increased by about $6.00, $4.30 and $6.20 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • China’s COVID-19 Restrictions  
    • The recent easing of travel restrictions boosted oil demand.  However, the worsening COVID situation in China as it eases restrictions alerts markets, limiting further price upticks. 
  • US Production / Commercial Petroleum Stocks 
    • Production growth in leading oil-producing states has slowed despite higher prices. Inflation, supply chain problems, and economic uncertainty have caused executives to lower their expectations. 
    • For the week ending 23 December, the EIA reported 11.5 million b/d in the L48 2, and 454,000 b/d in Alaska.  Rounded to an aggregate of 12.0 million b/d, this is down 100,000 b/d compared to the prior week.  
    • Weather-related disruptions continue to hinder output, particularly in North Dakota, where up to 440,000 b/d of production remains offline as of December 27.  
    • Next week’s production is estimated to decline by 200,000 b/d down to 11.8 million b/d when the brunt of the blizzard’s impact will likely be felt.  
    • Total commercial petroleum stocks (excluding SPR) declined by 11.2 million barrels last week to 1,208.4 million barrels, or 23.8 million barrels above equivalent year-ago levels. The draw was primarily driven by falling motor gasoline and ‘minor’ product inventories. Commercial crude stocks (excluding SPR) ended the week up 720,000 barrels, thus inventories are now 1.0 million barrels below 2021 levels.  

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.51 to P55.78 from P55.27 in previous week.  

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective January 3, 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter increase in gasoline by P2.90, diesel P2.10 and kerosene P3.05. 

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P17.80/liter for gasoline, P29.40/liter for diesel, and P24.35/liter for kerosene. 

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 S & P Global Platts Analytics

2 US is made up of 50 states, but 48 states, the lower 48 (L48), are adjoined.  Two of the states – Alaska and Hawaii – are not part of the L48 states. This is because Alaska is separated by British Columbia, Canada, and Hawaii is an island.   

 

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