WORLD OIL PRICES (January 16-20, 2023 trading days)
The week-on-week Dubai crude increased by about $4.50/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene increased as well by around $8.70, $6.20 and $6.90 per barrel, respectively.
Reasons for the Price Adjustment1
- Crude oil futures rose during the week, boosted by bullish sentiment surrounding Chinese demand growth following the long-awaited reopening of the world’s second-largest economy, and easing US recession fears.
o Reports showed that China’s full-year GDP grew by 3% in 2022, with COVID-19 restrictions weighing heavily on the economy in the final quarter. The annual growth figure exceeded market expectations, though it fell short of the official target of around 5.5% set in March.
o US recession fears eased amid signs of continued labor market strength as the US Labor Department reported just 190,000 initial unemployment claims for the week ended Jan. 14, beating expectations of around 215,000.
o The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil demand forecast for 2023 by 80,000 b/d to a record 101.7 million b/d on Jan. 18, with China making up almost half the gain.
- Asian gasoline crack vs. Dubai strengthened week-on-week, boosted by expectations of robust Chinese demand over the Lunar New Year and a drop in Chinese exports.
o China’s gasoline outflows hit a 26-month high of 1.91 million mt in December 2022, more than doubling on year and up 28.1% from November, Platts noted of GAC data.
o For the 2023 Lunar New Year, a festival 40-day travel rush (Jan. 7-Feb. 15), China’s Ministry of Transport predicted a 99.5% year-on-year increase in passenger trips, equivalent to 70.3% of the 2019 level. Similar with Hong Kong, gasoline imports rose 8.35% on month and 23% on year to a record of about 558,973 barrels in November.
o Firm exports are expected from India as many refineries return from ongoing turnarounds.
o Singapore’s commercial stockpiles of light distillates, which include gasoline, reformate, and naphtha, rose by 3.8% in week ended Jan. 18, up 26.3% on year per data of Enterprise Singapore.
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On Asian gasoil, reports stressed of widened East-West EFS during the week. However, while arbitrage of gasoil to the West remained viable, particularly for cargoes loading from the Persian Gulf and West Coast India, inventories may weigh on the lows.
o China’s gasoil exports hit a 33-month high of 2.79 million mt as domestic demand for agriculture and construction began winding down amid the winter. But Chinese gasoil outflows are expected to decline in January from previous months’ highs despite industrial activity slowdown during the Lunar New Year holiday.
o On the inventory front, Singapore’s onshore commercial stockpiles of middle distillates fell 5.6% in the week ended Jan. 18, leaving stockpiles 4.4% below the year-ago level, Platts noted.
FOREX: The Philippine peso versus US dollar appreciated during the week, as against average last week, by P0.31 to P54.72 from P55.03.
DOMESTIC OIL PRICES
Effective 24 January 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter increase in gasoline by P2.80, diesel by P2.25 and kerosene by P2.40.
These resulted to a total net increase this year to stand at P5.90/liter for gasoline, P2.05/liter for diesel, and P3.20/liter for kerosene.
For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.
Other recommended reference sites:
• http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
• http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
• https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price
For more information, call the
Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph
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1 Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics