Oil Monitor as of 21 February 2023

Date published: February 23, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (February 13-17, 2023 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by about $2.20/bbl. MOPS gasoline, and diesel have also increased by around $0.55 and $1.00 per barrel, respectively. On the opposite MOPS kerosene has decreased by about $1.00 per barrel.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures rose but sentiment softened after a higher-than-expected US inflation print fueled expectations that the Fed may take further monetary tightening actions. A positive China demand outlook put a floor under oil prices.
  • A positive demand outlook from recent OPEC and IEA projections provided some relief for the markets. The IEA on Feb. 15 raised its estimate of global oil demand growth for this year by 100,000 b/d to 2 million b/d. China is expected to account for nearly half the projected increase this year. The prior day, OPEC revised its estimate of 2023 global oil demand upward by 100,000 b/d.
     
  • Asian gasoline crack weakened, tracking a narrowing US RBOB-Brent spread on the back of a continued rise in US gasoline stocks to a near one-year high. Singapore’s light distillate stocks likewise hit a six-month high.
     
  • On regional trade, reports showed that China’s gasoline exports are expected to decline in February as local demand increased. On the other hand, Australia’s automotive gasoline fell 11.0% on month in December and down 20.7% on year, as year-end demand was moderated by heavy rainfalls. Elsewhere, lower driving activity amid harsh winter conditions is expected to have weakened gasoline demand in Japan, South Korea and India over the past a few weeks. Firmer gasoline demand is expected to emerge from Indonesia and Malaysia ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, starting on March 22.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel crack weakened as the East-West arbitrage economics continued to narrow on weakening attractiveness of sending Asian barrels to the West. Despite the lower cracks recently, regional refiners are expected to continue prioritizing gasoil production as it remains the most lucrative product compared with the others.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.35 to P55.01 from P54.66 in previous week.

 

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 21 February 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter increase of P0.90 for
gasoline and P1.05 for diesel. On a more positive note, the price of kerosene has fallen by
P0.25 per liter.

These resulted to a year-to-date net decrease for diesel at P1.10/liter and kerosene at
P0.50/liter. Gasoline on the other hand has a net increase of P6.00/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 17 February 2023 by S&P Global Platts Analytics

 

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