Oil Monitor as of 14 March 2023

Date published: March 15, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (March 06-10, 2023 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude remains at $55.08/bbl. The price of MOPS diesel and kerosene have decreased by $0.70 per barrel, while MOPS gasoline has soared by about $2.10 per barrel.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Oil prices fell this week after comments from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stoked rate hike fears and as the US dollar continued to rally. Powell told Congress that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated in light of recent strong economic data and the Fed would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes. The US dollar index has climbed to its strongest level since end-November.
     
  • The US EIA reported on March 8 the first weekly decline in US crude oil inventories for the year. US commercial crude stockpiles fell by 1.69 million barrels to a three-week low of 478.51 million barrels in the week to March 3. US SPR stocks stood unchanged at 371.58 million barrels in the same week.
     
  • On the upside, China’s demand growth with rebounding travel activity remains a key supportive factor for the oil markets, despite that its recent announcements of a modest GDP growth target of around 5% and a lower increase in fiscal spending of 5.6% for 2023.

o A strong rebound in China’s oil demand is expected following the removal of COVID-19 restrictions and maintain a forecast of about 900,000 b/d year-on-year demand growth this year.

  • Asian gasoline crack strengthened as supply is expected to tighten due to regional refinery turnarounds and reduced exports from China.
  • Seasonally, demand is expected to pick up during the Ramadan fasting month starting March 22 and then the peak summer driving season.

o In Indonesia, the fire that hit the Plumpang Jakarta Integrated Terminal on March 3 affected about 106,000 mt (around 895,700 barrels) of gasoline and 59 mt (around 443 barrels) of gasoil. The impact looks limited as Pertamina plans to draw on supplies from nearby terminals and is unlikely to boost gasoline imports substantially.

  • Asian gasoil/diesel crack weakened amid unviable East-West arbitrage economics, but the market remained supported by expectations of tightening supply. Middle distillate stocks increased in Singapore and Fujairah.
  • The gasoil East-West EFS narrowed on week as of March 9 Asian close, reflecting unviable arbitrage economics. The European diesel market still has plenty of supply due to the stockpiling of Russian-origin oil and refiners prioritizing diesel production while demand has been sluggish.
  • Inventories increased in Singapore and Fujairah. Singapore’s onshore commercial stockpiles of middle distillates jumped by 23.5% to a 5-week high of 8.90 million barrels over March 2-8, up 12.2% on year, showed Enterprise Singapore data.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by
P0.07 to P55.15 from P55.08 in previous week..

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DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 14 March 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease of P0.10 for diesel and P0.60 for kerosene. On the opposite, the price of gasoline has increased by P1.00 per liter.

These resulted to a year-to-date net decrease for diesel at P1.00/liter and kerosene at P1.65/liter. Gasoline on the other hand, has a net increase of P6.70/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 10 March 2023 by S&P Global Platts Analytics

 

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