Oil Monitor as of 28 March 2023

Date published: March 30, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (March 20-24, 2023 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by almost $3.70/bbl. MOPS prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased per barrel by about $2.00, $3.00 and $4.10, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Oil prices recouped some losses from a recent selloff as market sentiment recovered on expectations that the banking crisis has largely been contained and that the US Federal Reserve may pause further increases in interest rates following its decision to hike rates by 25 basis points on March 22.

  • However, prices remained under downward pressure due to continued concerns of a recession and as the US would not begin refilling its strategic petroleum reserves(SPR) anytime soon.

  • Asian gasoline crack strengthened as supply is expected to tighten due to regional refinery turnarounds and reduced exports from China in March and April. US gasoline stocks drew as demand rose.

o The market was likely supported by firm demand for Asian cargoes from Latin America ahead of Good Friday festivities in April and is expected to gain strength as supplies will likely tighten due to regional refinery turnarounds and reduced exports from China. On the other hand, the US gasoline demand is also expected to be supported ahead of the summer season.

o On inventory, US gasoline stocks fell by 6.40 million barrels in the week ended March 17 while Singapore’s commercial stockpiles of light distillates, which include gasoline, reformate, and naphtha, rose on week to 17.13 million barrels in the week ended March 22.

  • Asian gasoil/diesel crack strengthened amid expectations of tightening regional supply. The market is expected to gain further strength in the near term.

o S&P Global Commodities at Sea flows data put Chinese gasoil/diesel outflows at about 0.63 million mt so far for March as gasoil exports are expected to fall sharply due to the maintenance season and rebounding domestic demand.

o Disruptions caused by the ongoing strike at French refineries could bring upside potentials to the East-West arbitrage, though the impact has so far been limited.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.43 to P54.46 from P54.89 in previous week.

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DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 28 March 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease of P0.85 for
gasoline, P1.30 for diesel and P1.90 for kerosene.

These resulted to a year-to-date net decrease for diesel at P4.15/liter and kerosene at
P5.55/liter. Gasoline on the other hand, has a net increase of P4.65/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 24 March 2023 by S&P Global Platts Analytics

 

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