Oil Monitor as of 04 April 2023

Date published: April 4, 2023

WORLD OIL PRICES (March 27-31, 2023 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by almost $3.30/bbl. MOPS prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased per barrel by about $3.50, $0.90 and $0.65, respectively, during the reference week.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

The week’s increase in oil prices was largely driven by the following:

  • Expectations of tighter supplies. About 450,000 b/d of northern Iraqi crude exports have been shut since March 25, after the International Court of Arbitration ruled that the federal government should regain control over Kurdish loadings from Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal.

  • Weaker US dollar. Having been on a downward trend since March8, it also bolstered oil futures prices this week. Market attention turns to the OEPC+’s meeting on 03 April, where it is very unlikely to see any production changes.

o Ahead of the 03 April ministerial meeting, however, OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd), bringing the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.16 million bpd including a 2 million barrel cut last October.

  • Inventory. In the latest week ended March 24, US crude inventories drew by 7.49 million barrels to 473.69 million barrels as refiners increased runs after maintenance, USEIA data showed. US gasoline stocks also fell, and are expected to continue trending lower in the coming months.

o Global oil stocks built rapidly from July 2022 into 2023, averaging around one million b/d net of SPR drawdowns. Since the beginning of this year, global oil stocks are up by about 35 million barrels through mid-March. This equates to a build rate of about 450,000 b/d.

In the Asian market, gasoline crack weakened as Chinese gasoline exports are expected to show a strong rebound in April.US gasoline stocks drew as demand rose ahead of peak summer driving season.

Likewise, Asian gasoil crack weakened as the East-West arbitrage lanes remained shut. The Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining hub saw steady drawdowns of diesel and gasoil stocks amid supply disruptions caused by the ongoing strikes at French refineries.

Expectations of a strong rebound in China’s gasoline exports in April weighed on market sentiment.

  • PetroChina’s 200,000 b/d Wepec is said to export three MR-sized gasoline cargoes in April, totaling 105,000 mt, compared to just one MR-sized cargo in March.
  • China may raise overall clean oil product exports by 32.2% to 2.1 million mt in April from 1.6 million mt in March amid the slower-than-expected demand recovery at home.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by
P0.06 to P54.40 from P54.46 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 04 April 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter increase of P1.40 for
gasoline, P0.50 for diesel and P0.20 for kerosene..

These resulted to a year-to-date net decrease for diesel at P3.65/liter and kerosene at
P5.35/liter. Gasoline on the other hand, has a net increase of P6.05/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 31 March 2023 by S&P Global Platts Analytics

 

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