WORLD OIL PRICES (February 6-10, 2023 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by about $0.10/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased by around $0.80, $6.80 and $7.30 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

• Crude oil futures recovered in the latest week, supported by demand optimism underscored by Saudi Aramco raising prices for March-loading crude. But gains were capped by easing supply concerns after Turkey on Feb. 7 ordered the resumption of crude oil flows to the Ceyhan oil export terminal on the Mediterranean coast. EIA’s published figures which showed an increase in US crude oil inventories also supported the price uptick. Growing concerns of further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve into the third quarter of 2023 however counterbalanced the pressure on prices.

• Saudi Aramco lifted the official selling prices (OSPs) of most crude grades it sells to Asia for March loadings. For the flagship Arab Light grade, Aramco raised the OSP by $0.20/b to a premium of $2.00/b over the Dubai/Oman average, marking the first increase since September, while oil traders had expected a price cut.

o The move followed an improved demand outlook in China following its reopening and a steady downward trend of COVID-19 infections.

• Asian gasoline crack recovered as lower Chinese gasoline exports are expected for February, and continued build in US gasoline stocks to a 10-month high that put downward pressure on the markets.

• US gasoline inventory climbed by 5.01million barrels in the week ended Feb. 3, the highest since mid-March 2022. Implied demand for gasoline reportedly fall 4% below the five-year average.

• Asian gasoil crack weakened as the East-West spread narrowed by $10.23/mt on week to minus $38.40/mt, weakening the economics of sending Asian gasoil barrels to the West.

o The European diesel market is currently well supplied due to the stockpiling of Russian-origin oil and refiners prioritizing diesel production. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russian oil products remained in demand in Europe despite new sanctions and price caps that came into force on Feb. 5.

o Inventories built in the ARA but dropped in Singapore, Fujairah and Japan. Singapore’s onshore commercial stockpiles of middle distillates dropped by 16.5% from the previous week but still up 2.3% on year, Platts noted.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.37 to P54.66 from P54.29 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 14 February 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease of P2.20 for diesel and P2.50 for kerosene. No movement has been effected on the price of gasoline.

These resulted to a year-to-date net decrease for diesel at P2.15/liter and kerosene at P0.25/liter. Gasoline remains at a net increase of P5.10/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap 10 February 2023 by S&P Global Platts Analytics