WORLD OIL PRICES (December 12-16, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $0.10/bbl. On the contrary, MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have increased by about $0.75, $5.20, and $4.10 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

• Oil futures rebounded this week as improved global demand outlook outweighed a large US inventory build. Tentative signs of a “soft landing” in the global economy and resilient demand data in China and the Middle East have prompted the International Energy Agency to upgrade its global demand outlook. The IEA predicted oil demand will rise by 2.3 million b/d in 2022 and by a further 1.7 million b/d in 2023.
   
• On the inventory front, the US Energy Information Administration reported a 10.23-million-barrel build in commercial crude stocks for the week ended Dec. 9, the largest weekly build since the week ended March 5, 2021.
   
• Asian gasoline crack vs. Dubai recovered on week as of Dec. 15 Asian close, narrowing from a day prior on the back of a weekly inventory build in the US and Singapore.

o On inventory, US gasoline stocks climbed 4.50 million barrels to 223.58 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 9, exceeding market expectations and marking a fifth consecutive weekly build that left stocks 3.9% behind the 2016-2020 average. Implied demand for gasoline averaged 8.26 million b/d, down12% from the week prior and the lowest since the week ended July 8.

o Market talks indicated Australia’s gasoline demand remains robust due to the summer and holiday season. On the other hand, India’s gasoline consumption fell 4.6% on month to 2.86 million mt in November, reflecting a seasonal decline after Diwali festivities, though still higher by 8.1% on year; Vietnam’s gasoline imports said to have increased 76.9% in November, customs data showed, following attempts by the state-owned importers to address retail gasoline shortages.

o Moreover, South Korea was increasing gasoline exports to clear excess stocks meant for domestic consumption, as supply lines to domestic petrol kiosks had been disrupted by a recent three-week long trucker strike. Malaysia’s gasoline production rose 12.0% on month to 662,471 mt in October, Department of Statistics preliminary data released Dec. 15 showed, ahead of the country’s general elections in November that were expected to boost travel demand.

• Asian gasoil crack rebounded on week as of Asian close on Dec. 15. Regional supply trade flows data showed lower December gasoil outflows from China at about 1.9 million mt, compared with about 2.6 million mt seen for November. Meanwhile, Singapore retained its position as a net exporter of gasoil over the week ended Dec. 14, with Malaysia, the US and Australia being the top three destinations. Inflows of gasoil into Singapore were mostly from China, followed by South Korea and Malaysia.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.02 to P55.70 from P55.68 in previous week.
 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 20 December 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter increase in gasoline by P0.70, diesel by P2.90 and kerosene by P1.65.

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P13.95/liter for gasoline, P27.50/liter for diesel, and P20.80/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics