Oil Monitor as of 22 November 2022

Date published: November 24, 2022

WORLD OIL PRICES (November 14-18, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by almost $3.20/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased by about $1.60, $4.50 and $3.70 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures fell to six-week lows this week, with Brent settling below $90/b as of 17 November, as weakened US economic readings and a continued rise in China's COVID-19 cases dampened global oil demand outlook.
    • The OPEC made another cut to its oil demand growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 by 100,000 b/d in the latest monthly market report released 14 November. For 2023, the forecast was reduced from 2.34 to 2.24 million b/d.
    • The International Energy Agency (IEA) on 15 November also lowered its global oil demand growth estimate for 2023 to 1.6 million b/d from 1.7 million b/d, while raising its full-year oil demand growth estimate for 2022 from 1.9 to 2.1 million b/d. The IEA reiterated expectations for a year-on-year contraction in Q4 2022, estimating the reduction at 240,000 b/d.
  • Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions earlier fueled by the missile strike in Poland have eased after Western leaders moved quickly to de-escalate the situation. Both Poland and NATO said the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory.
  • Asian gasoline crack vs. Dubai rose on week as of 17 November Asian close, despite a weekly build in US inventories. Asian gasoline cracks have averaged $5.47 to-date in November, compared with $0.12/b in October and $2.87/b in September. Market structure strengthened slightly with the M1/M22 spread widening by $0.08/b on week to $0.53/b as of 17 November Asian close.
  • Following are the reports for the supply side:
    • Chinese gasoline losses are expected to climb over the coming months at a time of sluggish domestic demand due to the government’s prolonged COVID-19 mobility restrictions.
    • Asian gasoil crack dipped on week as of 17 November, as the M1/M2 backwardation softened by $0.20/b on week to $3.33/b. The East-West arbitrage economics weakened following the end of labor strikes at French refineries and warmer-than-expected seasonal temperatures.
    • Platts Analytics expect China’s gasoil outflows to make up a big chunk of its overall clean product exports over the November-December period, potentially reaching 1.9 million metric ton (MT) per month as state refiners ramp up exports to capture strong margins through quota utilization. This week’s trade flows data put China’s November gasoil outflows at around 1.6 million MT for now, compared with about 1.4 million MT in October.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.69 to P57.38 from P58.07 in previous week.

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 22 November 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease in gasoline by P0.40, diesel by P2.15 and kerosene by P2.10.

Thes resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P17.75/liter for gasoline, P33.85/liter for diesel, and P27.85/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics
2 M1 is made up of currency, traveler’s checks, and money in checkable accounts, whereas M2 contains M1 plus savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and money market mutual funds.

 

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