Oil Monitor as of 15 November 2022

Date published: November 17, 2022

WORLD OIL PRICES (November 7-11, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by almost $0.40/bbl. While on the opposite, MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have increased by about $2.60, $0.10 and $4.10 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Oil futures retreated this week, as a mix of bearish factors including fresh COVID-19 curbs in China, a weekly build in US crude stocks and easing supply concerns largely outweighed a cooler-than-expected US inflation report that offered hopes for a dovish pivot in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
     
  • Earlier this week, the Chinese government's commitment to its zero-COVID policy amid a spike in infections and weak economic indicators dampened market optimism surrounding the country's border reopening and demand growth in the near term.

o Mobility restrictions continued to be imposed in several Chinese cities as new cases across the country jumped to a six-month high. The southern metropolis of Guangzhou, China's latest COVID-19 epicenter of 19 million people, has moved more than 30,000 people into centralized quarantine and confined around5 million residents to their homes home through at least Nov. 13.

  • Supply concerns eased as the OPEC+ group, which had pledged to cut output by 100,000 b/d in October, hiked production by 220,000 b/d instead as several members recovered production that were lost from outages and maintenance.
  • On the inventory front, US crude oil stocks rose by 3.93 million barrels to 440.76million barrels in the week ended Nov. 4, the highest level since July 2021.
  • Asian gasoline crack vs. Dubai dipped on week as of Nov. 10 Asian close, despite a weekly draw in US and Singapore inventories.
     
  • Reports said, inventories continued to fall in global hubs. US gasoline stocks dipped by 0.90 million barrels to 205.73 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 4. Total product supplied for gasoline, the EIA's proxy for demand, rose around 4% to average 9.01 million b/d over the period but it remained behind the five-year average, marking a fifth-consecutive week of below-average consumption.
     
  • Asian gasoil crack rebounded on week as of Asian close on Nov. 10. East-West arbitrage economics weakened as the European market softened on the back of the end of labor strikes at French refineries and warmer-than-expected seasonal temperatures.
     

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.43 to P58.07 from P58.50 in previous week.

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 15 November 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter increase in gasoline by P0.90 and kerosene by P1.35 while diesel has decreased by P0.30.

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P18.15/liter for gasoline, P36.00/liter for diesel, and P29.95/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

 

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