Oil Monitor as of 26 July 2024

Date published: July 26, 2024

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 15-19, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by about $1.20 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased week-on-week by about $0.10, $1.40 and $1.70 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures were lower on demand concerns from China following the lower-than-expected economic growth data. However tight supply conditions provided a floor to the prices.
  • The persistent concerns over China's demand growth weighed on crude prices as the country’s closely watched Third Plenum failed to inspire hopes of forthcoming stimulus to aid demand, as well as lower-than-expected reading of Q2 GDP data earlier this week.
  • Despite those bearish factors, supply risks due to a wildfire in Canada have reinforced the floor for oil futures prices.
    • The wildfire once again threatens 400,000 b/d of oil production. Around 47 new fires have emerged in the oil sands rich area in 24 hours.
  • The Asian gasoline complex held firm with spot prices in positive territory supported by a robust East-West arbitrage spread and regional supply concerns.
    • The East-West arbitrage spread suggests potential supply tightness in the Asian gasoline complex as more cargoes are diverted to the Arab Gulf for higher export margins, thereby supporting gasoline sentiment in the region.
  • China’s independent refiners’ utilization rates were expected to remain subdued in July amid weak demand and thin margins thereby limiting supply in the region.
    • Limited exports from South Korea also supported the complex.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel complex was largely unchanged on week although supply glut arising from seasonal demand lull and unfavorable East-West arbitrage economics.
  • Supply of gasoil typically outpaces demand over June-September as the monsoon crimps agricultural and industrial activities in India and parts of Southeast Asia, prompting refiners there to export instead of allocating to the domestic market.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.02 to P58.39 from P58.42 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 23 July 2024, the oil companies implemented a decrease of P0.40/liter in diesel and P0.70/liter in kerosene while gasoline increased by P0.10/liter.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of the said products stand at a net increase of P7.75/liter for diesel, P0.50/liter for kerosene and gasoline by P10.35/liter.

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1 Asia Pacific 19 July 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

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For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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