Oil Monitor as of 17 August 2021

Date published: August 18, 2021

 

WORLD OIL PRICES (August 9-13, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by around US$1.40/bbl. MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also decreased by almost US$1.50 per barrel and US$ 1.80 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment

  • Oil Oil prices dropped by about 2% Friday on rising U.S.-China tensions and doubts about how quickly fuel demand would recover from the coronavirus crisis.
     
  • ​​​​Crude oil futures ended slightly lower on Aug.12, but remained within a well-worn range as traders continued to assess the demand concerns stemming from the rapid spread of the coronavirus delta variant.
     
  • Fuel demand tumbled in recent months as the pandemic caused governments to impose restrictions on movement and businesses closed their doors. While oil has rallied in recent days it dropped after China stressed not publish an annual growth target for the first time. Beijing also pledged more government spending as the pandemic kept hammering the economy.
     
  • The International Energy Agency on Aug. 12 lowered its estimate of 2021 demand growth to 5.3 million b/d from 5.4 million b/d, and cut its second-half 2021 demand estimate by 600,000 b/d to 98.15 million b/d.
     
  • The IEA pointed to a 120,000 b/d drop in July demand because of the coronavirus resurgence in China, Indonesia and elsewhere in Asia. But OPEC said Aug. 12 it was keeping its global demand forecasts for 2021 and 2022 unchanged, and that oil demand should remain higher than supply over the coming months.
     
  • The Asian gasoline market was largely steady in early Aug. 11 trading from the previous session, with crack spreads edging higher as participants looked to US gasoline inventory data for pricing cues.
    • Asian gasoline crack spreads remained firm on the back of a supported Western gasoline complex, which in light of short-term demand-side concerns remains tight.​
    • The US Energy Information Administration's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released late Aug. 10 noted that US gasoline demand will likely remain supportive into 2022.
       
  • Asian gasoil/ diesel Singapore middle distillate stocks swelled for 2nd consecutive week to 11.8 million barrels, up 1.13% for the week ending Aug 11. Stocks rose as demand within the region particularly China remained muted on tightening of restrictions to contain the fast-spreading Delta variant. Additionally, limited vessel availability and rising rival gasoil volumes from USGC worsened the arbitrage economics to the West.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.41 to P50.40 from P49.99 in previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 17 August 2021, the oil companies implemented a price decrease of P0.30 per liter for diesel and P0.40 per liter for kerosene. No movement has been effected on the price of gasoline by most of the oil companies. Some companies implemented a price rollback ranging from P0.15 to P0.20 per liter.

These resulted the year-to-date adjustments to stand at net increase of P10.10/liter for diesel and P8.30/liter for kerosene. Gasoline remains at a total net increase of P13.25/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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