Oil Monitor as of 14 September 2021

Date published: September 14, 2021

WORLD OIL PRICES (September 6-10,2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by around US$0.45/bbl. On the opposite, MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have increased by almost US$0.65 per barrel and US$ 0.60 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment 

  • Oil futures settled higher on Friday, September 10 to tally a gain for the week, as traders assessed China’s decision to release crude from its strategic reserve and continued monitor to the slow return of production in the Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Ida.
  • U.S. benchmark prices have been “trending sideways” between about $67 and $71 for about a week now and Friday’s action “appears to be a normal bounce within that range. Still, there has been a “general improvement in market sentiment” following Thursday night’s call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The energy market is “trying to figure out if the Biden/Xi call will lead to a more positive environment for risk appetite.
  • Crude prices settled higher Sept. 10 on the back of strengthened demand outlooks and concerns that sustained US Gulf production outages could pressure near-term supply outlooks.
    • While most US Gulf production remains shut 12 days after Category 4 Hurricane Ida made landfall south of New Orleans near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, the biggest Gulf producers have redeployed much of their offshore personnel and begun preparing for production restarts. Also, more critical onshore terminals are returning to service.
    • As of Sept. 10, 1.207 million b/d, or 66.36%, of US Gulf of Mexico crude oil production remained offline, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.
  • Asian gasoline market strengthened on the back of an uptick in regional demand as mobility restrictions were further eased this week in key consuming countries. Indonesia recorded highest mobility since May at 52% above baseline levels as of Sept.4. Similar improvement was observed in Malaysia while in India demand has been improving amid its opening of economy and wider vaccination coverage. Platts further noted the following about the gasoline market:
    • With US refiners and suppliers still struggling to resume full production following aftermaths of Hurricane Ida, US gasoline stocks declined substantially by 7.2 million barrels to 220 million barrels for the week ending Sept.3. High stock draws further helped in uplifting the Asian gasoline market.
    • On the supply side, Singapore's light distillate stocks rose to a three-week high in the week ended Sept 8, on a cut in gasoline exports from cautious buying from major regional importers and lower imports of naphtha and blendstocks, data released late Sept. 9 by Enterprise Singapore.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel 10 ppm market reportedly remained steady week-on- week as higher arbitrage volumes amid low regional supply supported the low sulphur grade market. Even though incentive to send cargoes outside Asia narrowed over the week, barrels from India and Persian Gulf remained viable to ship West following the sharp jump in US diesel prices due to continued supply issues on US Gulf Coast.
    • On the supply-side, lower gasoil/diesel export volumes from China that are expected to fall to 500-650,000 mt/month for August and September down from 1.39 million mt in July also drove up the market sentiment. In response to tighter regional balances amid lower regional supply and higher exports from the region –the front month gasoil 10 ppm swap spread hit 15-month high of $0.45/b on Sept.8 Asian close.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0. 12 to P49.99 from P49.87 in previous week.

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DOMESTIC OIL PRICES 

Effective 14 September 2021, the oil companies implemented a price increase in domestic oil products, i.e. P0.35-P0.40 per liter for gasoline, P0.35 per liter for diesel and P0.15 per liter for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a total net increase of P13.75/liter for gasoline, P11.25/liter for diesel and P8.85/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metr...

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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