Oil Monitor as of 07 September 2021

Date published: September 7, 2021

WORLD OIL PRICES (August 30-September 03,2021 trading days) 

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by almost US$1.80/bbl. MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also increased by around US$1.50 per barrel and US$ 2.90 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment 

  • Crude oil prices gained as Hurricane Ida made landfall leading to closure of oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). An estimated 1.7 million b/d crude production, representing 94% of GOM output, remained offline as of end last week. However, the damage was reportedly limited to oil platform and the production is likely to return to full production soon.
    • On the refining side, 2.2 million b/d of capacity remained offline as of Aug.31 and is expected to take slightly longer to recover. The surprise fall in US crude inventories, declining by 6% below 5-year seasonal average or 7.2 million barrels to 425.4 million barrels for the week ending Aug.27 further bolstered the crude oil market sentiment.
  • The OPEC+ decision in September 1 meeting to stay on course of increasing production by 400,000b/d for October is expected to ease refinery runs in East of Suez.
  • The Asian gasoline market declined for a second straight week despite Hurricane Ida shutting down 2.2 million b/d of refining capacity and light distillate stocks in Singapore. Asian gasoline cracks fell by $0.51/b on week to $8.36/b on Sept.2.
  • Gasoline demand is likely stay bearish in the near term as the cases remain high and vaccination rates remain low, which are likely to keep people indoors.
    • In Indonesia, the largest importer of gasoline in Southeast Asia, has extended restrictions in Java and Bali through Sept.6 but eased in other areas.
    • In Malaysia, the mobility index is still18% below the baseline levels in the week of Sept.3 even as restrictive measures were eased.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel 10 ppm cracks moved up sharply by $2.12/bbl week-on-week to $9.35/bbl on Sept.2 Asian close in response to the firmer demand in Europe and supply concerns triggered by hurricane Ida, shutting down 2.2 million b/d of refining capacity on US Gulf Coast. The bullish news for the gasoil market coincided with another stock draws in the US with ultra low sulfur diesel stocks falling by 1.93 million barrels for a third consecutive week to 40.65 million barrels for the week ending Aug.27.

FOREX: Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.21 to P49.87 from P50.08 in previous week. 

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DOMESTIC OIL PRICES 

Effective 07 September 2021, the oil companies implemented a price increase in domestic oil products, i.e. P0.50 per liter for gasoline, P0.95 per liter for diesel and P0.60 per liter for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a total net increase of P13.35/liter for gasoline, P10.90/liter for diesel and P8.70/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metr...

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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