WORLD OIL PRICES (July 19-23, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by around US$2.40/bbl. MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also decreased by almost US$2.80 per barrel and US$ 2.30 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment

• Crude oil prices edged down Friday, holding above $70 a barrel and only marginally lower on the week after riding out a series of negative shocks.

o The crude market has been very volatile this week, but has managed to claw back almost all of Monday’s rout to the lowest levels since May on concerns about the rising number of Covid-19 cases involving the delta variant, which weighed on the outlook for fuel demand.

o Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, resolved a supply dispute, agreeing to increase supply by an additional 400,000 barrels a day each month until supply cuts imposed at the outset of the pandemic have been fully reversed.

o U.S. crude oil supply data from the EIA also showed a build of just over 2 million barrels last week, the first increase in crude oil inventories since mid-May.

• ​​​​The Asian gasoline benchmark crack did fall week on week despite the late week recovery resulting from the inventory declines in the US and Singapore oil hub. The week-on-week fall reflected stricter/extended movement restrictions announced recently in various countries, including Thailand, Indonesia and Australia due to rising coronavirus cases.

o Reflecting waning demand, Asia’s largest gasoline importer Indonesia is expected to lower its imports of gasoline to around 7 million–8 million barrels in August, down from the around 8 million barrels it had planned to take in July.

o Singapore’s light distillate stocks meanwhile fell by a sharp 15.7% week on week to 12.29 million barrels in the week ended July 21.

• Asian gasoil/diesel markets were largely rangebound as rising coronavirus infections in Southeast Asia dented the demand outlook, while spot supply from North Asia was seen to be curtailed for August.

o The upsurge in COVID-19 infections has prompted several countries to announce extensions to coronavirus-related lockdowns and extend restrictions to cover wider areas, moves that were widely expected to dent overall gasoil demand.

o But even as Asia braces for deepening demand destruction for gasoil, some traders foresee that limited supply would help to keep fundamentals in balance.

o Platts reports say that spot supply for August remains curtailed from the major supply centers of North Asia, especially from China. There has not been a lot of supply too from Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.

o Moreover, a more viable economics is reportedly appeared to be leading Indian and Persian Gulf-origin cargoes to the West, capping inflows into Asia.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.13 to P50.31 from P50.18 previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 27 July 2021, the oil companies implemented a price decrease in domestic oil products. Gasoline has decreased by P0.75-P0.85 per liter, P0.60-P0.70 per liter for diesel and P0.60-P0.70 per liter for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a total net increase of P12.85/liter for gasoline, P10.30/liter for diesel and P8.70/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph