Oil Monitor as of 02 August 2022

Date published: August 3, 2022

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 25-29, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by about $0.60/bbl. MOPS gasoline has increased by around $3.00 per barrel while MOPS diesel and kerosene decreased by almost $0.30 and $0.50 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude prices saw a fall in last week as COVID-19 cases increased in China amid no relaxation in restrictions, coupled with a counter seasonal build in gasoline inventories in the US. Crude prices saw an uptick amid a tight supply picture on dwindling spare capacity within the OPEC+, with only Saudi Arabia and UAE left with any spare capacity.
     
  • A weaker dollar further supported prices. But fresh concerns of recession had put downward pressure on the market as the US Federal Reserve hiked its target Fed funds rates by 75 basis points at the close of its July 26-27 meeting in a bid to combat rising inflation.
     
  • Moreover, US commercial crude stocks fell 4.52 million barrels to 422.09 million barrels in the week ended July 22, as per EIA data, as record exports offset a counter-seasonal decline in refinery crude demand.
     
  • Asian gasoline cracks2 rose from last week’s lows but still the market sentiment remained bearish as regional supplies of gasoline is increasing as reflected by healthy regional inventories.

o Singapore's commercial stockpile of light distillates rose 11.20% on the week over July 21-27 to a historical high of 18.02 million barrels due to a 52.32% decline in gasoline exports.

o India's June gasoline exports rose 0.42% month on month and 1.38% on the year to 1.162 million mt, or 9.874 million barrels, on the back of peak demand from regional economies and the US.

o On the demand side, gasoline demand in China was also low amid concerns of further lockdowns due to COVID-19 and exports remained limited by export quotas.

  • The Asian gasoil crack rose on week by $5.37/b and settled at $39.92/b on July 28 Asian close supported by an open East-West arbitrage but still facing headwinds due to healthy regional supplies and tepid buying due to high prices.

FOREX: Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.64 to P55.70 from P56.33 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 2 August 2022, the oil companies implemented a price decrease in diesel by P0.60-P0.75 per liter and kerosene by P0.75 per liter. On the opposite, gasoline has increased by P0.75 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P19.65/liter for gasoline, P32.35/liter for diesel and P27.30/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics
2 A crack spread measures the difference between the purchase price of crude oil and the selling price of finished products, such as gasoline and distillate fuel, that a refinery produces from the crude oil

 

 

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