Oil Monitor as of 30 August 2022

Date published: September 2, 2022

WORLD OIL PRICES (August 22-26, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $5.00/bbl. MOPS gasoline has also increased by almost $3.00 per barrel as well as MOPS diesel and kerosene by nearly $14.45 and $14.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude prices rose on week supported by a large draw in US stockpiles and Saudi Arabia’s recent comments hinting potential OPEC+ output cuts. Yet gains were capped by developments in the talks to restore the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the US, which could restore 1 million b/d of supply to the market within three months of implementation. OPEC+ ministers will next meet on Sept. 5 to decide October production targets.
  • In the US, after taking releases from the strategic petroleum reserve into account, the EIA data indicated a far more significant decline of 11.37 million barrels to 874.7 million barrels in crude oil stocks in the week to Aug. 19 vis-a-vis the American Petroleum Institute inventory data. Moreover, Platts noted that US commercial crude oil inventories fell 3.3 million barrels to 421.7 million barrels in the week, putting inventories 6% below the five-year average.
  • Asian gasoline market softened as summer driving season winds down and imports slowed on healthy inventories.

o Import demand from Indonesia and Vietnam will likely soften amid healthy inventories.

o India’s gasoline demand is expected to slow down in Q3 seasonally due to monsoon.

o Philippines also has slowing demand as the school vacation period ends in H2 August.

o On supply, gasoline is expected to tighten amid refinery outages. Platts noted that South Korea's gasoline production could fall on expectation of reduced runs due to lower domestic demand, and while prioritizing gasoil productions for more favorable margins.

  • Asian gasoil/diesel cracks extended gains amid tighter supplies even as global refiners maximize gasoil productions. Exports from South Korea is expected to rise after record rainfalls hit domestic demand.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.19 to P56.09 from P55.89 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 30 August 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter increase in gasoline by P1.40 and
P6.10 for both diesel and kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P19.55/liter for gasoline, P37.80/liter for diesel and P33.20/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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1 Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

 

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