WORLD OIL PRICES (August 15-19, 2022 trading days)
The week-on-week Dubai crude price decreased by about US$3/bbl. MOPS price of gasoline increased by nearly US$0.50/bbl the same with diesel and kerosene that both increased by around US$6.00/bbl.
Reasons for the Price Adjustment1
- After rising last week, the crude prices fell this week on weak Chinese economic and refinery data coupled with a fresh prospect of an Iran Nuclear deal.
o China's zero-COVID-19 strategy continues to exert downward pressure on the global oil market following a series of new outbreaks.
o Adding the downward pressure was a fresh prospect of an Iran deal after the Iranian government expressed their confidence in the EU's proposal if the US were able to come to an agreement. Iran might unleash 1.3 million b/d over time though it may take some time before the sanctions are completely lifted.
o Some pressure was also exerted by the release of US data showing factory activity in New York contracting sharply in August in a New York Federal Reserve survey of manufacturers, and by bullish EIA report which suggested a decrease in US crude inventories, driven by a surge in US crude exports.
- Asian gasoline cracks rose as the as market gained some strength from tightness in prompt supplies and strong US gasoline market with pressure from slowing demand in some Asian countries.
o Japanese exports are expected to fall due to planned refinery turnarounds.
oExports from China are also expected to fall as the exporters would likely prefer to export gasoil in their limited quotas which will fetch them healthy margins after a fall in gasoline cracks.
o Demand from Vietnam was also poor amid ample inventories. In India, gasoline demand is expected to slow down in Q3 seasonally due to monsoon.
- Asian gasoil cracks rose on some regional spot demand but faced headwinds from ample regional supplies and an unviable arbitrage to the West.
FOREX: The Philippine peso had a week-on-week depreciation against the US dollar by P0.32 to P55.89 from P55.58 in previous week. This adds up to the domestic price adjustment valuation.
DOMESTIC OIL PRICES
Effective 23 August 2022, most of the oil companies implemented a per liter increase of P0.70 for gasoline, P2.60 for diesel and P2.80 for kerosene.
These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P18.15/liter for gasoline, P31.70/liter for diesel and P27.10/liter for kerosene.
For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.
Other recommended reference sites:
• http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
• http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
• https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price
For more information, call the
Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph
_______
1 Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics