WORLD OIL PRICES (September 26-30, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $5.00/bbl. MOPS gasoline decreased by almost $3.00 per barrel as well as MOPS diesel and kerosene by nearly $4.00 and $5.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

• Crude oil prices extended losses in the latest week as growing demand concerns amid recession fears and a strong US dollar outweighed the prospect of tighter supply. The ICE US Dollar Index continued to hover near its 20-year high as of Sept. 30 Asian midday, putting downward pressure on dollar-denominated assets. The recent decline in oil prices is expected to prompt the OPEC+ producer group to consider cutting output it its October 5 meeting.

• On potential supply disruptions, Russian President Vladimir Putin could proclaim the annexation of four Russian-occupied regions -Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia following the results of this week’s referendums which had been condemned by Ukraine and Western powers as illegal and sham.

o US officials said on Sept. 28 they are working with allies to impose more sanction measures on Russia over the “attempted land grab” in the coming days, targeting the financial sector and high technology, especially for energy exploitation, and human rights violations.

• In the US, about 190,358 b/d or 11% of oil production and 184,000 Mcf/dor 8.56% of gas production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut-in as of Sept. 27 as powerful Hurricane Ian approached Florida.

• Asian gasoline crack vs. Dubai rose by $1.59/b on week to $2.44/b at Sept. 29 Asian close after two weeks of declines, tracking a rebound in the US RBOB-Brent crack, supported by a counter-seasonal draw in US gasoline inventories and the prospect of tighter regional supplies due to scheduled refinery maintenances.

• On the inventory front, US gasoline stocks fell by 2.42 million barrels or 1.1% to a 10-month low of 212.19 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 23, EIA data showed. The level was 9.62 million barrels or 4.3% lower compared the 2021 level and 6.7% below the 2016-2020 average.

• Asian gasoil/diesel cracks rose amid a stronger pull of cargoes from the West and the prospect of tighter regional supply due to planned refinery maintenances.

• Inventories remained tight in major global hubs. US distillate fuel oil stocks fell by 2.5% in the week ended Sept. 23, down 11.8% from a year earlier. Singapore's onshore commercial stockpiles of middle distillates, which include gasoil and kerosene, was further noted of 12.5% week-onweek drop to a 5-week low of 7.34million barrels in the week ended Sept. 28, down by 30.2% from the year-ago level.

FOREX: The week-on-week average Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.98 to P58.86 from P57.89 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 04 October 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease in the price of gasoline by P0.40, diesel by P0.45 and P0.85 for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P14.45/liter for gasoline, P28.95/liter for diesel, and P23.25/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics