WORLD OIL PRICES (October 3-7, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $5.00/bbl. MOPS gasoline has also increased by almost $2.90 per barrel as well as MOPS diesel and kerosene by nearly $14.00 and $9.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

• Crude oil prices surged to a one-month high in the latest week after the OPEC+ announced a 2 million b/d cut in the group's production quotas from November in an apparent move to boost oil prices. The US White House expressed its disappointment towards the “shortsighted decision” and said it would consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC’s control over energy prices.

o Given that most OPEC+ members will be unable to produce at even their lowered quota levels due to capacity constraints, Platts Analytics estimated the actual supply reduction to be 780,000 b/d vs. October. 88% of the cuts would come from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the world’s only countries with remaining spare capacity as of October. Modest contributions are also expected from Kuwait and Algeria.

• Asian gasoline crack vs. Dubai slid into negative territory on Oct. 4, dropping by $2.77/b on week to minus $0.33/b as of Oct. 6 Asian close, tracking a recent decline in the US RBOB-Brent crack amid strong crude prices. The US gasoline stocks had decreased by 4.73 million barrels or 2.2% to a near eight-year low of 207.46 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 30.

• In Asia, China has issued 13.25 million mt of refined product export quota for gasoline, gasoil and kero/jet, bringing this year’s total quota of the three products to 37.25 million mt, about 1% lower than 2021. Almost all the qualified companies have raised their refined product export plans for Q4, and thus the increased forecasts for China’s Q4 exports of the three products to a monthly average of around 3.5 million-4 million mt.

• Asian gasoil/diesel cracks surged on a strong pull of cargoes from the West due to French refinery shutdowns and tight regional supply amid autumn refinery turnarounds.

o A wave of strikes by refinery workers in France, a major diesel importer, caused tightness in the prompt and fuel shortages at retail filling stations, forcing the government to tap its strategic fuel reserves even before an EU ban on Russian imports comes into force.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.09 to P58.77 from P57.86 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 11 October 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter increase in the price of gasoline by P1.20, diesel by P6.85 and P3.50 for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P15.65/liter for gasoline, P35.80/liter for diesel, and P26.75/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics