Oil Monitor as of 18 November 2019

Date published: November 20, 2019

WORLD OIL PRICES  (November 4-8, 2019 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by almost US$0.60 per barrel. MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also increased, gasoline by around US$3.10 per barrel and diesel by nearly $0.25 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, with Brent rising above $62 a barrel as fresh signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks fueled hopes for an end to the protracted trade war that has depressed global growth and the outlook for energy demand.

    • China said on Thursday that it had agreed with the United States for both sides to remove tariffs in phases, without specifying a timetable.

    • Oil is still down from an April peak as the trade spat dented demand and as global supplies swelled. U.S. crude inventories surged by 7.9 million barrels last week, almost four times more than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

  • The trade dispute has prompted analysts to lower forecasts for oil demand and raised concerns that a supply glut could develop in 2020. Oil fell on Wednesday, partly because of worries that a U.S.-China trade deal might be delayed.
  • Oil prices have been underpinned by a deal between the OPEC and allies, including Russia, to limit supplies until March next year. The producers meet on Dec. 5-6 in Vienna to review the policy.
  • Gasoline supply in Asia continued to show evidence of growth towards the end of the trading week with the increasing Chinese supply continued to loom due to high throughput, lackluster domestic consumption growth and additional export quotas.

  • Asian gasoil markets drifted lower towards the end of the week.  Demand is mostly unchanged, but supply is increasing with refineries returning from maintenance and higher run rates this month.  Supply will likely increased in December and January as refineries ramp to peak winter run rates. 

  • Sentiment in the Asian gasoil market continued to weaken on both supply and demand factors. Fundamentals then were more supportive for the market with some refinery turnarounds ended and it also coincides with more supply from China. 

FOREX:  Week-on-week value of Philippine Peso appreciated against the US dollar by    P0.47 to P50.53, from P51.00 in the previous week.

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DOMESTIC OIL PRICES      

Effective November 12, 2019, most of the oil companies implemented a price increase of P0.80-P0.85/liter for gasoline. In contrast,  prices of diesel and kerosene have decreased,  P0.15/liter for diesel and  P0.10-P0.15/liter range for kerosene.

Year-to-date adjustments stand at a net increase of P5.89/liter for gasoline, P3.52/liter for diesel and P0.75/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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