Oil Monitor as of 19 November 2019

Date published: November 20, 2019

WORLD OIL PRICES  (November 11-15, 2019 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by around US$0.70 per barrel. MOPS gasoline has also increased by almost US$2.15 per barrel while on the opposite, diesel has decreased by nearly $1.25 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • The petroleum complex remained in a well-worn range, with the upside still limited by concerns that the US-China trade negotiations may fall apart, and a new round of tariffs would kick in on December 15.

  • OPEC and its allies, including Russia will meet on Dec. 5-6 to discuss output policy and production curbs of 1.2 million bpd that have been in place since January 2019 with the aim of supporting crude prices. The pact runs to March 2020.

    • OPEC and its allies are leaning towards extending their 1.2 million b/d supply cut agreement through the end of 2020.

    • According to OPEC delegate, deepening the cuts would only encourage more US shale production to come online.

  • EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $63.59/b in 2019 and $60.10/b in 2020, 22 cents and 17 cents higher, respectively, from last month's forecast.

  • Strength in the Asian gasoline market lingered early this week as indications from derivative and physical cracks market continued to point toward a firmer trading session.

    • The prevailing upward momentum in the Asian gasoline market was a result of sustained regional demand, with supply being pulled toward India and the Middle East.

  • Healthy regional supplies and leaner demand are exerting downward pressure on the gasoil/diesel market.
    • Rising exports from India and China as well as annual destocking has left the market comfortably supplied.

  • On demand side, Australia remained one of the top export destinations for Singapore's gasoil, which peak demand season stretches over December to January.

    • Exports to Vietnam and Myanmar were relatively strong. 
    • Overall demand in Asia has been steady as the monsoon season came to an end.
    • Refinery maintenance also boosted demand Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam and Thailand.

FOREX:  Week-on-week value of Philippine Peso depreciated against the US dollar by    P0.23 to P50.76, from P50.53 in the previous week.

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DOMESTIC OIL PRICES      

Effective November 18,19 and 20, 2019, most of the oil companies implemented a price increase of P0.80-P0.85/liter for gasoline. In contrast,  prices of diesel and kerosene have decreased, rollback ranges from P0.15-P0.30/liter for diesel and P0.20-P0.25/liter for kerosene.

Year-to-date adjustments stand at a net increase of P6.72/liter for gasoline, P3.26/liter for diesel and P0.54/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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