Oil Monitor as of 20 October 2020

Date published: October 20, 2020

WORLD OIL PRICES (October 12-16, 2020 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by almost US$0.70/bbl. MOPS diesel has also increased by about US$0.50 per barrel. On the opposite, MOPS gasoline has decreased by around US$1.10 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

  • Asia’s oil demand recovery has been bumpy and uneven across products. However, refinery runs are expected to trend higher in Q4 on month-onmonth demand increases. Recovery is also seen to continue, with prices trending gradually upward through 2021.
    • Global oil demand is expected to contract by 8.3 million b/d (MMB/D) in 2020, before growing by 6.2 million b/d in 2021
    • Global oil supply is expected to down by 6.9 MMB/D in 2020, and then up by 3.8 MMB/D in 2021
  • US crude exports remain steady at above 3 MMB/D, but volumes will drop sharply in 2021. Platts Analytics expects US crude exports to drop from 3.1 MMB/D in 2020 to 2.1 MMB/D in 2021 as output declines1
  • Oil prices climbed following reports on high production:
    • Reuters stating OPEC+ producers achieved 102% quota compliance in September.
    • Latest S&P Global Platts survey Oct. 9 found compliance reached 99% last month, led by the Gulf states, but Russia and some African producers continued to slip.
  • Key OPEC+ monitoring committee, co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is scheduled to meet virtually 19 October, amid speculation that they may not go ahead with easing its current 7.7 MMB/D production cut in 2021
  • The Asian gasoline market continued to weaken at the end of the week as the Singapore 92 RON gasoline crack spread2 fell due to higher supply as export volumes from China to Singapore rose after China's golden week holiday, and concerns of lower driving activity ahead of winter.
  • Industry sources in Asia said that a resurgence of COVID-19 infections has dampened requirements from gasoil key importers in the region.
    • The sharp August year-on-year decline did not come as a surprise as COVID-19 movement restrictions were in place throughout most of the month.
 

FOREX:  Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.18 to P48.56 from P48.39 in previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

The oil companies implemented their price adjustments effective today, 20 October 2020. Gasoline has decreased by P0.25 per liter. On the contrary, both diesel and kerosene have increased; diesel by P0.25 per liter and kerosene by P0.20 per liter.

These resulted to the total year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net decrease of P4.67/liter for gasoline, P10.01/liter for diesel and P13.44/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

 

_______

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______

1 Asia-Pacific Oil Market Forecast, October 15, 2020
2 Crack spread is a term used on the oil industry and futures trading for the differential between the price of crude oil and petroleum products extracted from it.

Pages